430
FXUS61 KGYX 031814
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
214 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED AS A COUPLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.
2. WARMING TREND STARTS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY NEARING THE CT RIVER. THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HAS EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN ADDITION TO THIS, AROUND 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE IS BEING ANALYZED ACROSS MOST OF NH AND FAR
WESTERN ME AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREAS TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY/SHEAR OVERLAP, ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OCCUR THAT COULD ALLOW MORE LOCALIZED CAPE UPWARDS OF
1000 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS, MAINLY FROM WET MICROBURSTS FROM THE
JUICY AIRMASS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT LOWERING FREEZING
LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS, ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AREN'T PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE. ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEFTY RAIN RATES BUT SHOULD BE FAST-
MOVING ENOUGH TO WHERE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE AROUND THE NASHUA/MANCHESTER CORRIDOR AND ALSO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CARROLL AND OXFORD COUNTIES WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS
FELL, WHERE A CLOSER EYE WILL NEED TO BE KEPT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRIES OUT. BASED ON LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE, THIS SHOULD BE BY 6 TO 7 PM FOR NH (ALTHOUGH EARLIER
FOR WESTERN NH) AND THEN MAYBE AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THAT IN FAR
WESTERN ME. THERE WILL BE PROBABLY BE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
CONTINUING TO ADVANCE ALONG THE FRONT FARTHER EAST INTO MAINE
THIS EVENING, BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A
SHOWER OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH, BUT THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIMITED TO RIVER
VALLEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY, BRINGING MUCH QUIETER WEATHER
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS OF +15C TO +17C SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. HIGHS IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS,
BRINGING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S, BUT SOME OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
COULD SEE LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. SO I HAVE GONE A BIT COOLER
THAN THE NBM ON LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...WARMING TREND STARTS FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING WED AND LAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SUNNY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM AROUND 12C TUE UP TO 18°C WED-FRI (POTENTIALLY HIGHER BY
FRI). WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUE AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DEWPOINTS. THE
WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE THAT COULD CLIP THE
COAST, BUT NOT GOING TO PIN POINT IT THIS FAR OUT. BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, OUR REGION WILL BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BERMUDA
HIGH SHIFTING TO OUR EAST AND WEST, AND A NEARLY STATIONARY MID-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BROAD AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW
WILL DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S TO 70S BY FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S TO NEAR 90°F EACH AFTERNOON,
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 90°F IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, DROPPING ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE MAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF A WEAKENING
CUTOFF LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST, A STALLED OR SLOW- MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG LOCAL SEA BREEZES, HOWEVER WARM AIR
ALOFT (CAP) WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY SPOTTY. WHILE WEAK OVERALL
FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW, ANY WELL
TIMED DIURNAL SHORTWAVES COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT
PERIOD WILL HAVE HIGH RAINFALL RATES,SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. OVERALL THE LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MVFR OR VFR FOR THE NH
TERMINALS TODAY, BUT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA OR
TSRA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD APPROACHES. THE WESTERN ME
TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO THE IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS, BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH FG/BR OR
SHRA/TSRA. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT, BUT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IF
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-SATURDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT DIURNAL IFR FOG AS WE
ENTER A PERIOD OF INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEK. SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW STEADILY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND THEN
WESTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS COULD STAY AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, SO
THE CURRENT SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
EXPECT BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FROM WED ONWARDS (5-10 KT WINDS
AND 2-4 FT SEAS) AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/JAMISON
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