118
FXUS61 KGYX 050526
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
126 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER BUILDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
2. INCREASING MOISTURE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BEFORE TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE LOWER 90S
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONVECTION MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES
THOUGH BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEREFORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE STRETCH. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 80S EACH DAY.
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW TODAY INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S BEFORE RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A FEW READINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT OFTEN TIMES IN
OUR AREA WE EITHER MIX DOWN DRIER AIR ALOFT TO REACH THE 90S OR
WE DON'T MIX AS MUCH AND OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TEND TO BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE. IN THIS SITUATION, IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN SPOTS BUT DEW
POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM). NEVERTHELESS, AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOME
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BY LATE WEEK. NIGHTTIME LOWS LOOK TO BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE BUT NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUS HOT SPELLS THIS
SUMMER WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 60S EACH NIGHT.
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL CROSS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE
OF AUGUST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS IS GOING
TO BRING ABOUT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F, AND WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM (04.19Z) IS SUGGESTING HIGH
PROBABILITIES (60-90%) OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING THIS COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
25-30 KTS OF SHEAR. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE THE LACK
OF FORCING MOST DAYS WHICH IS GOING TO KEEP ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED IN COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE FINER
DETAILS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME,
BUT FOR NOW EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMER PATTERN WHERE IT WON'T HURT
TO HAVE AN UMBRELLA OR RAINCOAT ON HAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP TO
LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, BUT WEATHER-WISE WE
REMAIN UNSETTLED.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: OTHER THAN VALLEY FG BOTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEB AND HIE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME
S AT 5-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR PREVAILS AT MOST TERMINALS. A
BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
LEB AND HIE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS AND PERSISTS
INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. A SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING A STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/BARON
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