343
FXUS61 KGYX 071624
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1224 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR WISCASSET WITH SHOWERS
BLOSSOMING FARTHER TO THE WEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS
AND LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. HIGH PWATS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
3. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR UP BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID DAY AHEAD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +17C TO +19C SUPPORT
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND COMBINING THESE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH EXTENDING INTO INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE AND
THE WESTERN ME COAST, WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 95F-100F RANGE. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME INCREASE IN DIURNAL CU IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE 500MB
PATTERN INDICATES WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN, WHICH
SHOULD ADD SOME SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED
MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WEAK RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THIS EVENING, SO WE'LL SEE IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN NH OR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THE CLOUDS MAY END UP
HINDERING THIS POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVES CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING WITH THE SAME WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. A QUICKER EXIT TO THE EAST MAY BRING A BREAK AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME DEGREES OF CLEARING AND INSTABILITY TO
BUILD GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
THE LATEST NAMNEST, RAP, AND HRRR ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS THINKING, ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/CLEAR IS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN (AND TO THAT EXTENT HIGH TEMPERATURES). IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS GAINED, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PWATS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.75" SO RAIN RATES COULD AGAIN BE QUITE
EFFICIENT, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PERSISTENT OR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. BACK TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES...MODEL CONSENSUS IS MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NH COULD STILL APPROACH 90. ONCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SOME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING, FOG MAY
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER MAINLY DRY DAYS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES
FROM THE NORTH. THE TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS THE
ONE PRECEDING IT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING IF THERE
IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS/FLASH FLOODING BUT AS OF
NOW, ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS ARE NOT APPEARING TO BE OVERLY
SUPPORTIVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 80S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, ALTHOUGH NOT FAR FROM SEASONABLE AVERAGES. A FEW ADDITIONAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
TIMES, ALTHOUGH NO DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT. GIVEN THE
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION, RAINFALL WOULD BE
LARGELY BENEFICIAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS A EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES. MARINE STRATUS/FOG PERSISTS TODAY, BUT SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP
TOWARDS AUG/RKD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UNSTABLE AIRMASS MEANS
THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING,
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN A SINGLE TAF FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY:MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH SHRA. IFR TO
MVFR AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHRA/TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR INITIALLY, BUT FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRING
LOCALIZED MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAYTIME BEFORE SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES OVERNIGHT, LIKELY BRINGING MVFR OR
LOWER RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH LOWER CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY BRING MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS.
OUTLOOK: WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ014-018>028-
033.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-012>014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...CORNWELL
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