063
FXUS61 KGYX 072344
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THIS UPDATE, JUST BLENDED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST AND EXPIRED THE HEAT
ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
2. HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN AND SUBTLE SHORT WAVES
ARE ABLE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. CAMS ARE AGREEMENT THAT FALLING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE WAVE LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION WHILE THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
VARIABLE AMONGST MODELS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WHILE OTHERS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD
BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS WHICH
WOULD EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THEREFORE IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT
PEOPLE HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE A WARNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BECAUSE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
THE FIRST WAVE EXITS EAST AFTER DAY BREAK WITH ANOTHER WAVE POISED
TO CROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER, CAMS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION AS THIS SECOND WAVE CROSSES. SHEAR WILL BE LACKING
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WHILE HIGH PWATS
WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND BRING THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. CAMS REMAIN VARIABLE IN THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION
WHILE MOST GENERALLY AGREE THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES IN 3
HOURS MAY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL WANE SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS SECOND WAVE PASSES
EAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BOUNCE BACK ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO
MORE SUNSHINE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. THE MUGGY AIRMASS KEEPS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS A POSSIBILITY AS A WEAK FRONT
DISSIPATES WHILE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY, PUSHING
HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. BUT THE DISSIPATING FRONT
DOES LOOK LIKELY TO BEGIN THE TREND TOWARD SOME DRIER AIR BY
MONDAY. DEW POINTS LOOK MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S ON
MONDAY, LESSENING THE MOISTURES' IMPACT ON THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES.
THE GRADUAL TREND TOWARD DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RATHER
THAN ONE BIG FRONT BRINGING A CHANGE OF AIRMASSES, A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BRING
TEMPS BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DEW
POINTS ALSO LOOK TO DROP WITH EACH PASSING FRONT, FALLING BACK
INTO THE 50S BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WIDESPREAD 80S STILL LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF MID TO LATE WEEK.
BUT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS, HEAT INDICES DON'T LOOK TO BE A
CONCERN, AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL TREND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WITH A RETURN TO 50S AT NIGHT BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND MARINE INFLUENCES.
VALLEY FOG WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AT
LEB AND HIE. MARINE STRATUS OR FOG WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
TO IFR AT PSM, PWM AND AUG AND POSSIBLE LIFR AT RKD. MHT AND
CON LIKELY STAY VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR PREVAILS, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR PREVAILS, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT LEB AND HIE EACH NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR PREVAILS, BUT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
MARINE
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS. HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE CONTINUING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THE END OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. AREAS OF MARINE FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS BRING A
GRADUAL SHIFT OF WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/HARGROVE/SCHROETER
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