296
FXUS61 KGYX 081125
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
725 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
HAS RESULTED IN GREATER FORECAST RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. THE FLASH FLOODING RISK HAS
INCREASED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
2. HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
COOL DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHT FALLS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. CAMS DEPICT DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH AN INITIAL ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTERACTS WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH/FRONT. RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO
1500 J/KG ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND
GENERALLY LOWER MOVING EAST. SHEAR WILL BE LACKING SO THE SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW, BUT SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS/PWATS
MAY LEAD TO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL
RATES IN THE 1+ INCH PER HOUR RANGE.
AS OF NOW, CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AREAS THAT SEE THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE, THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS, AND OVER INTO
THE KENNEBEC RIVER VALLEY AND MIDCOAST AREAS. AREAS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST CORES COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF OVERLAPPING THE MORNING ROUND IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL ME. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE 60S NEAR 70, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BEGIN
LOWERING SOME LATE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT MAY ALSO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER WESTERN ME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST PLACES WITH MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE INTO
THE LOWER 60S, AND THEREFORE HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR. A SERIES OF ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS... ALTHOUGH NO DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TOWARDS SEASONABLE AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER AS WELL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND MARINE INFLUENCES. MARINE
STRATUS OR FOG WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR AT PSM, PWM,
AND RKD. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST TODAY, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS TONIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
AND A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE
SHRA/TSRA LATE DAY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAYTIME BEFORE SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES OVERNIGHT, LIKELY BRINGING MVFR OR
LOWER RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE
SHRA/TSRA.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS. HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE CONTINUING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS CROSS OVER THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/TUBBS/CORNWELL
AVIATION...CORNWELL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page