045
FXUS61 KGYX 082333
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR
OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MIDCOAST AND SOUTHERN KENNEBEC VALLEY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
LAKES REGION EARLIER. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS, GENERALLY ALONG A BROAD LINE FROM LITTLETON UP
THROUGH BERLIN. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE CELLS AS THEY MOVE EAST
BUT WE SHOULD START SEEING THEM DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST BLENDED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST AND FRESHENED UP
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
2. A VERY WARM DAY WITH LINGERING HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.
3. HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT, THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT
HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL REMAINS A CONCERN. THE AREA OF FOCUS FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
AND LAKES REGIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE, PARTS OF WHICH
ALSO SAW SOME HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT BEGINS THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. DEW POINTS
LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S DURING THE DAYTIME, KEEPING HEAT
INDICES MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S TO NEAR THE MID 90S. SO WHILE THE
COAST WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 95 DEGREES TOMORROW, A
HEAT ADVISORY DOESN'T APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.
SOME SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT DO NOT LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD AS TODAY'S ACTIVITY.
WITH THE RETURN OF SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR, LOW TEMPS FALL
MORE SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WE'VE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S LOOK LIKELY, WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MONDAY WILL REMAIN WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90. HOWEVER, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
LOWER MAKING FOR LOWER HEAT INDICES AND A DRIER FEEL.
SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH A CHANCE THAT A FEW COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, WITH DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 JOULES IN
SPOTS, ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
TIME.
A SERIES OF ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS... ALTHOUGH NO DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TOWARDS SEASONABLE AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER AS
WELL WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS, BRINGING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS TO SOME TERMINALS. HIE AND AUG ARE THE SITES MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT MOST
OTHER SITES COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. A COMBINATION OF
MARINE AND RADIATION FOG THEN LIKELY BRINGS IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS TO AUG AND RKD TONIGHT. LEB AND HIE SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS OR LOWER IN VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY VFR
THEN PREVAILS AT MOST TERMINALS BY MID- MORNING TOMORROW, WITH
THE FOG LAST TO LEAVE RKD. MAINLY VFR PREVAILS TOMORROW NIGHT,
BUT VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN AT HIE AND LEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE
SHRA/TSRA.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME MARINE FOG AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE EAST OF CASCO BAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
CLEARING AND FAIR CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY LATE TOMORROW AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/EKSTER/HARGROVE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page