041
FXUS61 KGYX 100629
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
229 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.
2. COOLER WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
CHASING OUT TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL QUEBEC BY THIS
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO IT'S SOUTHWEST. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
APPROACHES.
MOST OF THE CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT STORMS WILL BE ONGOING
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS VERMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES. WHILE WE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH,
TIMING WILL NOT BE DIURNALLY OPTIMAL AND STORMS MAY BE DECAYING
AS THEY APPROACH. STILL, ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SO NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE, THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS, AND THE KENNEBEC RIVER
VALLEY ARE MOST FAVORED FOR THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM, IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. A FEW UPPER 80S
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL
MAINE. THAT BEING SAID, HUMIDITY WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP DOWN SO
THE HEAT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH, TO THE LOW/MID 60S
SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES THE 500 MB PATTERN INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING THE
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE, AND POTENTIALLY AN UPPER LOW, LATE IN THE
WEEK.
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL
DEWPOINTS, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL GOING TO BE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +15 TO 16C. NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE DAYS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS
IS GOING TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE FINER DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE EURO ENSEMBLE SUITE HAS A TIGHT CLUSTER SUGGESTING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER QUEBEC IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
REGION, WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MORE CLUSTERED OVER THE
GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. THE EURO ALSO HAS AN ATTENDANT UPPER LOW
WHICH WOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY THINGS, WHERE AS THE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN CURRENTLY KEEP AN OPEN WAVE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
ALL THESE SOLUTIONS AT LEAST SUGGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS, SO THAT
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN COVERAGE AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS DEPENDING ON HOW THE MIDWEEK EVENT PLAYS OUT THERE
COULD STILL BE LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY, BUT THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE WEEK COMES TO A CLOSE.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN BY SATURDAY AND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE
EAST, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS SO THE WEEKEND COULD BE QUITE A STUNNER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR PREVAILS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT HIE AND LEB WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD
LIFT MY MID MORNING EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BRING
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE AT LEB, HIE, AND AUG. VFR THEN RETURNS BY
LATE TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: CIGS AND VSBYS VFR WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIR WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF GENERALLY
WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/BARON
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