090
FXUS61 KGYX 102307
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED THIS EVENING AS THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK, JUST TWEAKED NEAR TERM TRENDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z
TAFS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A WARM
FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE ONTARIO- QUEBEC
BOARDER. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY ARRIVE IN OUR AREA THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT INSTABILITY IS
FLEETING WITH THE DAYLIGHT. AT THE LEAST WE CAN EXPECT SOME
BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS, AND A CONTINUED GRADUAL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT.
2. TROUGHING WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. HIGH
ASTRO TIDES ARE EXPECTED, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT,
BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS REACH INTO NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, WITH
GRADUALLY MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH AND TOWARD THE
COAST. A STRONGER GUSTY STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECT TO WEAKEN AND DECAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY DAWN
TOMORROW, WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. AREAS THAT DO SEE
SOME RAIN THIS EVENING STAND THE CHANCE TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP BY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW, WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED POP UP
SHOWERS THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY AND INCREMENTALLY COOL WITH EACH PASSING FRONT, YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH SOUTHERN NH TOMORROW. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S, KEEPING THE AIRMASS MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE OVERALL.
WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS, LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 50S
TOMORROW NIGHT IN MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES ARE MORE
LIKELY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER MOST OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENGULF THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER, MORE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO EMERGE OVER THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK.
PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT COOLER THAN THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE NBM. OPTED TO NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON WED/THURS BY 2-3F. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT FOR ANY
LOCATION IN THE AREA TO EXCEED 85F WEDENSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY COOLER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION, LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT A TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN
WITH UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM DYNAMICS AS IT EXITS THE NORTHEAST.
DURING ITS PASSAGE, RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AND COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE STORM.
PWATS LOOK TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1.1-1.5 INCHES - WHICH IS QUITE DRY
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WITH THIS IN MIND, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DON'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SPECIAL NOR IMPACTFUL.
IN ADDITION, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HIGH TIDES FOR
THURSDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH FOR THE MONTH, AND THE TIDE
GAUGES WILL BE CLOSE TO REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY LOW WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD PREVENT GAUGES CASM1
(PORTLAND) AND HPMN3 (HAMPTON) FROM REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL, BUT SOME HIGH WATER ALONG THE COAST
IS LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR PREVAILS INTO THE EVENING, WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AT HIE, LEB,
AUG, AND RKD. A SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS. VALLEY FOG IS THEN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT LEB AND
HIE, AND POSSIBLE AT RKD SHOULD A SHOWER MOVE THROUGH IN THE
EVENING. VFR PREVAILS TOMORROW, THEN VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
LEB AND HIE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
TROUGH AXIS BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS EXITS THE AREA.
SATURDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING TO SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ON
TUESDAY, KEEPING FAIR CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...BARON
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/PALMER
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