156
FXUS61 KGYX 110627
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
227 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOLER WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BROAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD TODAY WHICH IS GOING TO
KICK OFF OUR TRANSITION TOWARD COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY DROPS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO +12-14C BY THE AFTERNOON MEANING THE CEILING FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID-80S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO THE NORTH. CAMS ARE
HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER
DURING THE DAY, BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALSO BEING ADVECTED IN I
IMAGINE THAT IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. WEDNESDAY LOOK LIKE A
SIMILAR DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AND THE
DRIER AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE. AGAIN CAMS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THEY MAY HAVE
TROUBLE OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA. AS OF NOW MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEADING
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS NOT GOING TO DO MUCH TO INCREASE
MOISTURE WITH LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES AND THE NAM ONLY SUGGESTING
PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE (A TREND DOWNWARD FROM
EARLIER). DEWPOINTS ALSO LOOK TO END UP IN THE LOW TO MID-60S,
AND LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE
COULD FORM (WITH 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR), SO A STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE (AND CSUS MACHINE LEARNING MODEL HAS SOME LOW
PROBABILITIES) BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR CERTAIN WHAT THE
PARAMETER SPACE IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE. THE OTHER POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS GOING TO BE COVERAGE IN GENERAL AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER AND ULTIMATELY
TRACKING EAST OF MAINE. THIS MAY KEEP COVERAGE ON THE LOWER END,
BUT I AM FINE WITH THE BLANKET 30-50% POPS THE NBM IS
ADVERTISING FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL WE CAN GET THIS EVENT IN
THE CAM WINDOW.
ONE THING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY PORTEND
TO IS CLEARING OUT ON FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS WOULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE MOST PART HIGH PRESSURE COULD
START BUILDING IN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTERWARD. THIS MAY MAKE FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS A RESULT, BUT THE CHANCE FOR A NICE WEEKEND IS
LOOKING BETTER.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AT HIE, LEB, AUG, AND RKD. A
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. VALLEY FOG IS
THEN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT LEB AND HIE, AND POSSIBLE AT RKD
SHOULD A SHOWER MOVE THROUGH. VFR PREVAILS TOMORROW, THEN VALLEY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT LEB AND HIE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
TROUGH AXIS BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS EXITS THE AREA.
SATURDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TODAY, KEEPING FAIR
CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SERIES
OF GENERALLY WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON
AVIATION...BARON/CLAIR/PALMER
MARINE...BARON/CLAIR/PALMER
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