403
FXUS61 KGYX 120659
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STRONG STORMS COMES THURSDAY.
2. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END WITH PWATS
JUST OVER AN INCH BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO CONTINUES OUR
COOLING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE LOW TO MID-70S TO THE
NORTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW FOR HEATING TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF INSTABILITY, AND WITH 25-30 KTS OF
SHEAR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS GOING TO BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
COVERAGE ISOLATED. STILL, WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 20C A
GUSTY STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AS THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END SO COVERAGE MAY
END UP SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY MORE THAN TODAY, BUT THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK HIGHER. AGAIN, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW CAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP WITH AROUND 30 KTS
OF SHEAR. HALFWAY DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE MID (6.5-7 C/KM)
AND LOW LEVELS (7.5-8 C/ KM) BRING A GUSTY WIND THREAT AGAIN
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT BOTH THE CAMS AND
CSUS MACHINE LEARNING MODEL HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLY BACKING OFF.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN LIKING A ROUND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THAT
MAKES IT HARDER FOR LATER STUFF TO DEVELOP, WHERE AS THE NAM
NEST HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS CROSSING THROUGH THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY AS
THE 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD, BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY
THE EVENING SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT. FRIDAY COULD
SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH A
BREEZE CARRYING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. IT IS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS
THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SO INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
GOING TO BRING US SOME COOL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW
50S.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MAKING ITS EXIT AND THE 500 MB FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO ZONAL.
THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS GLOBAL MODELS BRING LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNSURPRISINGLY AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE TRACK AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW THE
NBM HAVING BLANKET 30-50% POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
SEEMS REASONABLE
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VALLEY FOG AT HIE AND LEB CLEARS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY COME ASHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
WIDELY SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPO MVFR RESTRICTIONS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
WATERS. CONDITIONS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BRIEFLY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, PEAKING TONIGHT AT 11.2
FEET AT PORTLAND. BY THIS WEEKEND TIDES WILL BE PEAKING UNDER
11 FEET. STORM SURGE ALSO CONTINUES TO RUN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1
FOOT, SO WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE AT TIMES WITH
WATER GETTING INTO THE MOST FLOOD PRONE LOW SPOTS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON
AVIATION...BARON/EKSTER/PALMER
MARINE...BARON/EKSTER/PALMER
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