259
FXUS61 KGYX 122320
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
720 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
FOR COASTAL CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTH. WATER LEVELS
WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED NEAR TERM
FORECAST TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND FORECAST MODEL DATA. THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP CUTOFF IN MLCAPE BETWEEN
VT AND NH, WHICH IS ALLOWING STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
NH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS COMES
THURSDAY.
2. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AND PLEASANT WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FORM OF
A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
500MB TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES/VORT. MAXES WILL CROSS OVERHEAD, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY
DRY THIS AFTERNOON, SO COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND
MOSTLY IN NH, BUT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS ARE (AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL
WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT). CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (30-50%)
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ARRIVES. LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S, AND VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AND
WITH BETTER FORCING, SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. ENSEMBLE
MEAN OF SBCAPE FROM THE 12Z HREF DEPICTS 500-1000 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT TO WORK WITH, SO A COUPLE OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE AS CAMS ARE SHOWING POOR RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. ASIDE FROM SHOWERS/STORMS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL, WHICH IS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING, AND ASIDE FROM A COUPLE
OF LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT, SO PATCHY FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BY FRIDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN IT'S WAKE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER CENTRAL MAINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA AND REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY. NEAR AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO
NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80F IN MOST OF THE POPULATION CORRIDOR, THOUGH COOLER
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ON SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD, AND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY CROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY LATE IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES IT
INTO NH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT, WITH DRIER AND CLEARER SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE TO DUE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
THIS EVENING THROUGH PORTIONS OF TONIGHT. IFR OR LOWER IS THEN
POSSIBLE AT HIE AND LEB TONIGHT WITH VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY IF
THESE SITES SEE RAIN AND SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT. VFR
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, BUT A COUPLE OF SHRA AND MVFR
CEILINGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA WILL
LIKELY BRING TEMPO RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT HIE AND LEB.
FRIDAY: PATCHY LIFR IN THE MORNING DUE TO VALLEY FOG. VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
WATERS. CONDITIONS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BRIEFLY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH STORM SURGE ALSO
CONTINUING TO RUN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 FOOT. SO WATER LEVELS MAY
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE AT TIMES WITH WATER GETTING INTO THE MOST
FLOOD PRONE LOW SPOTS. BY THIS WEEKEND TIDES WILL BE PEAKING
UNDER 11 FEET.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/COMBS/PALMER
AVIATION...TUBBS
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