214
FXUS61 KGYX 130627
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
227 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
2. FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK H5 TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY,
PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR ASCENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MIXED IN BETWEEN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
LATEST CAMS SHOW SOME MODEST DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND
MLCAPE UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND UP TO 35 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY BECOMING CLOSE TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
BORDER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WANE TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A SHARP TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH THE
INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO +9 TO
10C. NORMALLY THIS WOULD ONLY BE GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S (WHICH IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS), BUT
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TENDS TO GIVE US BOOST FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS SO WE COULD SEE CLOSER
TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY. THIS PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE A TURN WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
ON THIS, SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE SEE SOME RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE POINT OF CONTENTION IS
THE TRACK AND THEREFORE THE SPREAD IN HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE MAY
SEE IS HIGH WITH THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES RANGING FROM NADA TO
0.75". THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS CURRENTLY ON THE HIGH END WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW GOING OVERHEAD AND THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. THE GEFS AND GEPS TAKE THE TRACK MORE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH THE GEFS HAVING THE WEAKER LOW AND THE THE GEPS
ENDING UP IN THE MIDDLE WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN
ARE LOW (30-40%).
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO MIDWEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING
DEVELOPS AT 500 MB ONCE AGAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH THE TRACK OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DETERMINING HOW WARM WE GET, AND ULTIMATELY THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ALONG WITH VALLEY FG AT LEB AND HIE, BRINGING IFR-LIFR
RESTRICTIONS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL RESULT IN TEMPO RESTRICTIONS
TODAY WITH LIGHT S FLOW AT 5-15 KTS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT LEB AND HIE MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE IFR-LIFR
RESTRICTIONS LATE AT NIGHT DUE TO FG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: PATCHY LIFR IN THE MORNING DUE TO VALLEY FOG. VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TODAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE GOING TO
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE, BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COASTAL WATERS MAY STAY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/BARON
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