677
FXUS61 KGYX 131830
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
230 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
2. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
3.AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS WITH RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONVERGENCE ISN'T ALL
THAT GREAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP COVERAGE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. STILL, EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT AND
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG COULD ALLOW SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND
A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS TO AROUND
8000-9000 FT AND SOME STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL ALSO
BRING A THREAT OF HAIL.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET, BUT SOME OF THE CAMS ARE
ADVERTISING ANOTHER PUSH OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
THIS EVENING THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS IN AND AROUND
THE MOUNTAINS...SO WE'LL HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF THAT. OTHERWISE,
UPSLOPING MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS,
WHILE SKIES CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CT
RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT.
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTINUE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN
THE DAY, AND A 500MB SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WAS ALLOW A SHOWER OR STORM TO CLIP
SOUTHWESTERN NH...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 70S-LOW 80S SOUTH.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SEASONABLY
COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMALLY COOLER AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING LOWS IN THE 40S WHILE OTHERS
SEE TEMPS IN THE 50S. VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY, KEEPING THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOW
80S FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND LOW-MID 70S IN THE NORTH. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT COULD AGAIN BRING LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, SUNDAY
LOOKS VERY SEASONABLE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST, BUT ELSEWHERE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STICK TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LIKE FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER, A SEA BREEZE
WILL LIKELY KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT, NEAR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKING TO BRING RAINFALL FOR
OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. POPS LOOK RELATIVELY LOW
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, THEY WILL START TO
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND WANES. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SUNDAY
NIGHTS' BATCH OF RAIN MOVE OUT BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ON
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER,
WHICH DELIVERS OUR RAINFALL, TO MOVE SOUTH OF US, DELIVERING THE
HEAVIEST BATCH OF RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CENTER,
PUTTING IT RIGHT INTO OUR CWA. MOST MODELS HAVE AROUND ONE HALF
TO AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL,FOR OUR CWA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ON MONDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO BE PRESENT IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF UPPER 60S FOR NORTHERN COOS, FRANKLIN, AND SOMERSET
COUNTIES.
TUESDAY HAS HIGH PRESSURE SNEAKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA,
DELIVERING CALM CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DOMINATE TILL THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING TO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THURSDAY HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. LONG-RANGE
MODELS, ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO CHANGE, HAVE A STEADY AMOUNT OF
PRECIP RETURNING TO OUR AREA FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BEING
THIS FAR OUT, BUT SOME INDICATIONS ARE THERE FOR AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL AGAIN, FURTHER LOWERING ANY ONGOING DROUGHT
CONCERNS FOR OUR AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION THE REST OF
TODAY, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR
TO IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ANY PASS OVER A TERMINAL THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT, MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG AT HIE AND LEB. VFR FRIDAY MORNING GUSTS
OUT OF THE NW TO AROUND 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
REST OF FRIDAY: VFR. WNW/NW GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY VFR WITH IFR OR LOWER AGAIN POSSIBLE AT HIE AND
LEB SHOULD VALLEY FOG DEVELOP.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR, INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHRA ARRIVING WEST TO EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CIGS IN RA. SOME TS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: DECREASING RA COVERAGE, IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS VFR LIKELY
FOR POINTS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS STAY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE MORE WESTERLY AT
TIMES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING OVER THE WATERS
MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED, BUT MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/CORNWELL/KRAMPF
AVIATION...COMBS
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