666
FXUS61 KGYX 270118
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATES FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SERIES OF FRONTS BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2. DRY WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE TRANSITION INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
VALLEY FOG INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THEN STARTS IT'S APPROACH TOMORROW, LEADING
TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. AS WE CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER INTO
THE ARENA OF THE CAMS, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. AS
OF NOW, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN ONLY
MAXES OUT IN THE ~40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE AND THAT'S MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THAT BEING SAID, MANY OF THE
CAMS SHOW MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WITH PWATS CLOSE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST CONVECTION BUT IT WILL BE VERY HIT
OR MISS. 12Z HRRR SOUNDINGS ARE ADVERTISING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. THUS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, MAINLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. STORMS WILL BE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING BUT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SOME
OF THE LONGER RANGE CAMS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL ACTIVITY AND SOME
ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY AS MOVE CLOSER TO SUNSET AND THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH IN THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TREND FASTER IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH
IT LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
EARLY ON IN THE NIGHT AND GET IN ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. I STILL
HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAVE LEFT THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S, BUT THE REST OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD EASILY BE
ABLE TO REALIZE THE LOW 50S. NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. WHILE DRY AIR IS GOING TO BE QUICKLY FILLING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE VALLEY FOG. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S. CLOUDS THICKEN LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AND AN
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC MAKES A CLOSE PASS. ALL GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS NOW AND LOOKS LIKE THE RESULT
WILL BE A FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
CENTRAL MAINE THAT WOULD PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. TUESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE GET
RIDGING ALOFT, BUT A SECOND UPPER LOW IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWING A
TRACK SIMILAR TO THE EARLY WEEK ONE AND WILL LIKELY DRAG
ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT
IDEAS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, BUT HAVING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THIS SETUP. THIS WILL ALSO COME WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES JUST IN TIME FOR THE BEGINNING OF METEOROLOGICAL
FALL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. SOME MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE
VALLEYS (LEB AND HIE) AND AROUND THE COAST AT RKD BUT SHOULD
LIFT BY 12Z TO 14Z THURS MORNING. VFR THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS
DEVELOP ACROSS NH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO WESTERN ME
FOR THE EVENING. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOW WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TS WILL BE INTO ME IN THE EVENING, AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT LOCAL.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: ANY EARLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY WITH VFR THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS CEILINGS
THICKEN AND LOWER AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE MORNING. UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH CAN CROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE, THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS THAT FORM,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, BUT WITH WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY MUCH
OF THAT MAY REMAIN DOWNEAST.
A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MARINE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND, BRINGING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FAIR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/HARGROVE
AVIATION...CORNWELL/HARGROVE
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