370
FXUS61 KGYX 281047
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MORNING FOG DISSIPATES, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE MORE FOCUSED IN
SOUTHERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY, WITH A SIMILAR
GUSTY WIND THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS.
2. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY OVER THE
WEEKEND.
3. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A
STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD ERODE THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. BREAKS IN STRATOCU DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION FROM THE
FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST. MORNING STRATUS MAY BE MORE RESILIENT
TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST AND AROUND PENOBSCOT BAY INTO THE LOWER
KENNEBEC VALLEY, RESULTING IN SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BISECT THE CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING AGENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. CAPE, MOISTURE, AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALL INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPHS ARE ELONGATED, BUT
OVERALL SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
GIVEN THIS IMBALANCE, STORMS THAT RAPIDLY DEEPEN WITH A
MARGINAL UPDRAFTS COULD COLLAPSE RESULTING IN GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. CAMS FAVOR SOUTHERN ME FOR SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE, BUT AN
AREA FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST IN BOTH ME AND NH STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY. IF ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONG
ENOUGH, STORMS MAY WEAKEN IN A MARINE AIRMASS BEFORE REACHING
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTICULARLY UP THE SOUTHERN ME COAST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASES IN THE EVENING WITH
INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ALONG AND THEN OFF
THE COAST WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CAA FOLLOWS,
WITH A COOL NIGHT FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS. TEMPS LINGER AROUND THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS OUR REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
SETTING US UP FOR A FAIRLY PLEASANT FINAL WEEKEND OF
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. DRYING WESTERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA
COMBINED WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE REGION WILL
USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP MIXING, EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
FALL TO THE 40S/50S. IT WILL BE A GREAT TIME TO OPEN UP THE
WINDOWS WITH REFRESHING, COOL NIGHTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH NIGHTS IN
TYPICAL FOG PRONE AREAS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY, WITH SOME MODEL
OUTCOMES USHERING IN SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY WHILE OTHERS KEEP
IT MOSTLY DRY. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
COOS COUNTY NH INTO NORTHWEST MAINE. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE "COMFORTABLE ZONE", AND EXPECT THE DAY TO STILL
FEATURE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER CANADA, THIS PUTS US BACK INTO AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK
WITH LIKELY A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING ON STRONG WNW UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THESE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CAN
BE NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY TO TIME OUT IN A QUASI-ZONAL TYPE OF
PATTERN, BUT GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE IN ON ONE OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY. IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME CONCENTRATED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.
SHOULD SEE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EMERGE, WITH NEW
ENGLAND TRENDING TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS. IN ANY CASE,
THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL BEAR WATCHING. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S TO START THE WEEK, BUT WITH
RISING DEW POINTS AND MILD NIGHTS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE MAY
BREAK INTO THE "WARM SECTOR" DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. VFR IS
EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES, THOUGH LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO BLANKET THE
MIDCOAST, AFFECTING KRKD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND COULD IMPACT KLEB AND KHIE,
AS WELL AS KRKD. OTHERWISE MOST OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CIGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA WILL LIKELY BRING
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
S WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 5-12 KTS WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT, HIGHEST
OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS IS LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS. MARINE
FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND SINKS SOUTH
OF THE WATERS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER
AVIATION...CORNWELL/PALMER
MARINE...
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