869
FXUS61 KGYX 281837
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
237 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND.
2. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES AROUND MID WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
RADAR AND GOES IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE STRETCHED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR WESTERN ME ALONG WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF ~6
C/KM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS, WHICH MAY
HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WESTERN ME. ANY STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
PERHAPS HAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WANE THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONT.
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER. LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL BE INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS TO CENTRAL MAINE AND POINTS NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE COLD
FRONT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT.
A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW FAR NORTH RAIN
CHANCES GET ON TUESDAY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHERN NH MOSTLY DRY. THE LATEST NBM EXPANDS CHANCE POPS
(30-50%) NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. MODEL
SPREAD ALSO EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW AND A POTENTIAL LEADING SHORT WAVE CROSSING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD BRUSH OF 50
TO 60 PERCENT POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE IT IS LIKELY
THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH THIS TIME.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME
POSSIBLE TEMPO RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA, MAINLY AT KAUG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST SITES BUT FG IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
AT KLEB AND KHIE. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT LOW CIGS AND SHRA BRING
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS AT HIE.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: LOWERING CIGS AND SHRA LIKELY BRING PERIODS
OF AT LEAST MVFR.
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SW FLOW WILL FRESHEN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY.
A FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SE WINDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/SCHROETER
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