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FXUS61 KGYX 290113
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
913 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY OVER
THE WEEKEND.
2. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES AROUND MID WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS TO CENTRAL MAINE AND POINTS NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE COLD
FRONT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT.
A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW FAR NORTH RAIN
CHANCES GET ON TUESDAY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHERN NH MOSTLY DRY. THE LATEST NBM EXPANDS CHANCE POPS
(30-50%) NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. MODEL
SPREAD ALSO EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW AND A POTENTIAL LEADING SHORT WAVE CROSSING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD BRUSH OF 50
TO 60 PERCENT POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE IT IS LIKELY
THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH THIS TIME.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST
SITES BUT FG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KLEB AND KHIE. FOG LINGERS AT RKD EARLY
THIS EVENING, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT WICKS IT OUT TO SEA. S-SW
WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS OF 10-15
KTS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT LOW CIGS AND SHRA BRING
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS AT HIE.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: LOWERING CIGS AND SHRA LIKELY BRING PERIODS
OF AT LEAST MVFR.
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SW FLOW WILL FRESHEN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY.
A FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SE WINDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...CORNWELL
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