772
FXUS61 KGYX 291025 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.
2. THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK; THE BEST
OF WHICH ARE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT, MORNING VALLEY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE EASES INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING, SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 12 MPH. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT, BUT A SHARPER INVERSION ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THIS DRIER AIR FROM MIXING DOWN.
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO THICKEN ALOFT COME SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE HIGH'S INFLUENCE
WEAKENS. MID LEVEL JET WILL BE POISED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION WILL NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. FOR NOW THIS IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTH AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH, WITH UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE
SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
INSTABILITY MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT GREATER
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UNDER UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW, DRY AIR FLUSHES BACK IN MONDAY
FOR ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
FAST WNW 500 MB FLOW OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST U.S., ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL BE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR DISTURBANCES TO RIDE THE RIDGE AND BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES
TO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, SHOULD SEE A STATIONARY
FRONT SETUP IN OUR VICINITY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION AS A WARM FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE, BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
BRINGS DRIER AIR BACK WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE HIT-OR-MISS ON TUESDAY, BEFORE WIDESPREAD
RAINS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT TRACKING RIGHT OVER NEW
ENGLAND. ONE KEY FACTOR TO WATCH WILL BE THE WARM FRONT POSITION,
WHICH WILL DICTATE IF IT IS A MORE STRATIFORM OR CONVECTIVE RAIN.
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO OUR REGION, WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT WELL SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES, WHICH FOR NOW ARE LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT LEANING TOWARDS
A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE CLOUDS/RAIN.
RAIN CHANCES DROP FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH DRIER NORTHWEST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED RAIN CHANCE FROM A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
LATE WEEK, BUT FOR NOW ENSEMBLES SUGGEST RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WILL LIFT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A STEADY
NORTHWEST BREEZE. RETURN FLOW/SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO MORE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. I ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT LOW CIGS AND SHRA BRING
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS AT HIE. SHRA ADVANCE FROM THE NORTH IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: LOWERING CIGS AND SHRA LIKELY BRING PERIODS
OF AT LEAST MVFR.
MARINE
NW FLOW ARRIVES BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THESE
TURN SW BY THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTS INCREASE TO 20 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY. A
FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SE WINDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CORNWELL
AVIATION...CORNWELL/LEGRO
MARINE...CORNWELL
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