981
FXUS61 KGYX 292333
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY.
2. MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK; GREATEST LIKELIHOOD
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PM-THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW WHILE DEEP INVERTED V LOW LEVEL PROFILES MAY ALLOW
FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. AREAS SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT OF MAINE
LIKELY REMAIN DRY INTO SUNSET. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING TO AROUND
850 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO +15C LEADING TO HIGHS
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MID 80S. NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWER CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
FAST WNW 500 MB FLOW OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST U.S., ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL BE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR DISTURBANCES TO RIDE THE RIDGE AND BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES
TO NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE TIMING
OF THESE WAVES, BUT BEGINNING TO SEE AGREEMENT IN TUESDAY, THEN
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY PM-THURSDAY, AS THE TWO WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. SOME DRIER STRETCHES ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO WINDOWS, BUT REALLY CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
FROM POPPING UP IN THIS RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN AT ANY TIME
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE CERTAINLY SIGNALS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THIS PATTERN, BUT THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND WHETHER IT IS CENTERED OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAIN UNCERTAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SHOWS A NEAR 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1" QPF FOR TUESDAY-FRIDAY,
WHILE THAT NUMBER DROPS TO 10-20% FOR >2". IN SUMMARY, THERE IS
CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL, BUT GENERALLY
NOT CONCERNED ABOUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME, LIKELY OWING TO
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF A WARM
FRONT/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT SETS UP IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF/NAM
BRINGS THE WARM SECTOR NORTH INTO SW NH ON TUESDAY, WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM SKEPTICAL ON A
NORTHERN OUTCOME ESPECIALLY SINCE MORNING RAIN/CONVECTION LOOKS TO
BE INVOLVED. SHIFTING TO WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS US
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS ALL IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS IN
THE 60S-70S, BUT MILD/MUGGY NIGHTS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S THE FLOOR FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT
FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT LIKELY BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO HIE AND
LEB. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. LOW CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA
MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS TO HIE AND AUG LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARDS VFR MONDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z SUNDAY AT
HIE BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE
TAF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: LOWERING CIGS AND SHRA LIKELY BRING PERIODS
OF AT LEAST MVFR.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DRIFTS EAST
TONIGHT AND SETTLES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY. SW WINDS
INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AND SEAS
AROUND 3 FEET. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. A FRONT DRIFTS
NORTH TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH PREVAILING SE TO
E FLOW AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/BARKER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...TUBBS
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