063
FXUS61 KGYX 301835
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
235 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
2. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NH INTO SW MAINE. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE PUT A
HALT ON DESTABILIZATION WHILE AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
HAS SEEN SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AND MU CAPE BUILD TO AROUND 500
J/KG. LATEST RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH THESE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE KENNEBEC VALLEY THROUGH SUNSET. LIMITED CAPE WILL
LIKELY KEEP STORMS SUB-SEVERE WHILE SOME MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH THE COAST. MUCH OF TONIGHT WILL BE DRY
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
AREAS THAT SEE SOME RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT WITH RANGE FROM THE
40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY FOR FAIR WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK, WHILE NEW
ENGLAND LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS HUDSON BAY BY LATE IN THE
WEEK, THEN FOLDS OVER ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. WHILE REMAINING ON
THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE MIDWEEK, NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BECOME
ENVELOPED IN A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN, THAT
MAY EXTEND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL.
THE FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVES IN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, WHILE A
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SERVE TO
FOCUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO
MISS MOST OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, LEAVING SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH THE FIRST ROUND.
THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH A BIT INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRESH WAVE OF MOISTURE DRIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME, WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. WITH BLOCKING OFF TO NORTH, ANY MOISTURE OR
SHOWERS WOULD HAVE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND.
THIS KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ONGOING INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR NEW ENGLAND TO DRY OUT FOR LABOR
DAY WEEKEND WOULD BE FOR THE TROUGH TO DEEPEN MORE SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA, RESULTING IN A MORE CONSOLIDATED TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS, MAINLY FROM THE
EURO AIFS. NEW ENGLAND WOULD STILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN A COOLER
TROUGHING PATTERN, BUT WITH A BRIGHTER AND DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT A WET
WEEKEND IS FAR FROM A LOCK AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH MONDAY...-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM LEB
TO PWM INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS
LINE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WHILE LOCAL MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION. VFR LIKELY
PREVAILS TONIGHT WHILE SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS
AND ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO A SEA BREEZE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE WITH -SHRA
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. MVFR AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MVFR MORE LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
REMAIN.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY. SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
WATERS TO START THE WEEK WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FRESHENING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/SCHROETER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page