492
FXUS61 KGYX 311057 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
657 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FAIR WEATHER TODAY, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER TONIGHT.
2. A FEW SHORTWAVES BRING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST
3. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND-NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
TROUGH EXITING OFFSHORE
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FULL SUN RETURNS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER UNDER THE
SUN. NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING, BUT MAY NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AT BAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
WORK INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL TEND TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. WHILE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH'S INFLUENCE WEAKENS,
RAIN MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
FAST WNW 500 MB FLOW OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST U.S., ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL BE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR DISTURBANCES TO RIDE THE RIDGE AND BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES
TO NEW ENGLAND. WITH THAT SAID THE HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL HAS BEEN
SAGGING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST IN RECENT RUNS, ALONGSIDE THE WARM
FRONT AND MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY.
TUESDAY WILL BE AN OVERCAST DAY OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN
MAINE, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING WITH DISTANCE SOUTHWEST. COULD
BE SOME EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SOUTHWEST
NH DURING THE MORNING WITH A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MUCH
COOLER WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S NORTH OF THE
FRONT, BUT MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT. SW NH MIGHT GET
CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT, BUT FOR NOW THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
INDICATES IT STAYS TO THE SOUTH.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WED MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW MOVES
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE A RINSE AND
REPEAT OF THE FIRST WAVE IN TERMS OF TRACK AND IMPACTS; COOL TEMPS
NORTH OF THE FRONT, AND THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAINS TOWARDS
SW NH. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE SEE A SEPARATE ROUND OF RAIN
LATER ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE THURSDAY CLOSES OFF NEAR NOVA SCOTIA,
BRINGING CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN FALLING DEW POINTS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS A POTENTIAL TRIGGER, BUT POPS DROP
FROM 50-80% THURSDAY TO 15-30% FOR THE FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. FINALLY,
COULD BE QUITE BREEZY NEAR THE SHORELINE IF A STRONGER COASTAL LOW
CAN MANIFEST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...VALLEY FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING A WIDESPREAD VFR DAY BEHIND. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY, OR MORE SOUTHERLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH OVERNIGHT, WITH
SHRA BECOMING MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL FOR EEN/MHT/CON.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUES MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. MVFR AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MVFR MORE LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
REMAIN.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
WATERS TO START THE WEEK WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FRESHENING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CORNWELL
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...CORNWELL
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