080
FXUS61 KGYX 012359
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
759 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARM FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
2. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
3. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE STALLED FRONT THAT SERVED TO FOCUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLIER TODAY REMAINS IN PLACE. WHILE THE
STEADIEST PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT AT THIS POINT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL LINGER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS WELL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MAINE STRENGTHENS THROUGH TOMORROW,
KEEPING NORTHEASTERN AREAS BRIGHTER AND DRIER FOR ANOTHER DAY.
FURTHER WEST, CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AS THE NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW,
BUT THE BULK OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
TOMORROW NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. A
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEEPEN OVER WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS FALL. A SECONDARY LOW MAY THEN FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE ON THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BATCH OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW/FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN,
ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE AND HIT OR
MISS AT TIMES. STILL, THE NBM IS ADVERTISING WIDESPREAD MEDIUM
TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (50 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR 24-HOUR QPF OF AN
INCH OR GREATER BY THE TIME THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THUS, A GOOD SOAKING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE ON THURSDAY
AND SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS IN THE FORECAST. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
RANGE OF SOME LONG RANGE CAMS, IT IS APPARENT THAT WE MAY SEE A
LULL OR TWO IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR. THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CONSIDERING WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, LEAVING SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FEEL A LITTLE BIT LIKE
EARLY AUTUMN WITH HIGHS MAINLY FORECAST IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
THE MID 70S SOUTH AND SOME BREEZIER WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. AN
APPROACHING RIDGE MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT WARMUP ON LABOR DAY WITH
SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO
LOWER TONIGHT WITH IFR LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL AS FOG
NEAR THE COAST. LIFR IS MORE LIKELY AT LEB LATE TONIGHT WITH
VALLEY FOG. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR AND VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
DAYTIME TOMORROW, BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AT MOST TERMINALS WITH LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
TERMINALS
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: IMPROVING CONDITIONS, WITH MVFR STILL
POSSIBLE IN BRIEF SHOWERS. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT LEB AND HIE.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS. NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG
IS LIKELY AT HIE, LEB, AND CON, AND STILL POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A STALLED FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS MOVES INTO
THE WATERS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BROAD
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CROSSING THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS A RETURN TO FAIR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND IN
NORTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/HARGROVE
AVIATION...SCHROETER
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