871
FXUS61 KGYX 020630
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
230 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
TODAY.
2. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
3. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND LABOR DAY
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BECHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE THROUGH DAY BREAK ACROSS MUCH
OF NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE PRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CANADA WILL ALLOW CIELINGS
TO LIFT AND ANY LINGERING FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.
SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD ADDITONAL
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY THIS EVENING WILL SEND A WARM FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING AS
PWATS CLIMB TO 1.5 INCHES OR MORE. THESE HIGH PWATS COMBINED
WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET, SOME INSTABILITY, AND
DEEP WARM CLOUDS DEPTHS WILL ALLOW FOR BOUTS OF MODERATE RAIN TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THESE
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND SHORT
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AND FLOOD CONCERNS WHILE THE TIMING WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE THAT COULD LEAD TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS.
THE LOW WILL OCCLUDE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
CATCHES THE WARM FRONT THAT MAKES LIMITED PROGRESS INTO MAINE.
THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL EXIT THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE AROUND
MID DAY WITH CAMS SUGGESTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT. CAMS SUGGEST MU CAPE WILL BUILD TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AVAILABLE FORCING AND DRY AIR ALOFT SEEM TO
BE LIMITING COVERAGE FROM LATEST CAMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS
IN THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM SECTOR AS THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. OTHERWISE, MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL SEE A DRYING TREND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SKIES TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
THROUGH SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF SOME SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY
THAT WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP WHILE POPS GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LOW
EXITS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING AALOFT BUILDING IN
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO
LOWER THROUGH DAY BREAK WITH IFR LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS AND
LIFR CIGS AT PWM WITH FOG. LIFR IS MORE LIKELY AT LEB INTO THIS
MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR AND VFR IS
EXPECTED MID TO LATE MORNING, BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN
LOW CIGS AND RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LLWS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: IMPROVING CONDITIONS, WITH MVFR STILL
POSSIBLE IN BRIEF SHOWERS. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT LEB AND HIE.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS. NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG
IS LIKELY AT HIE, LEB, AND CON, AND STILL POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG.
NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS A RETURN TO FAIR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND IN NORTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER
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