467
FXUS61 KGYX 030000
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
800 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
2. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND LABOR DAY WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAINE. THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT, WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT TONIGHT, BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD ROUND OR RAIN, HEAVY SHOWERS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT EDGE OF THE SHOWERS ARRIVES INTO NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AROUND SUNSET, AND THEN SPREADS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY, BUT BY THE TIME
THEY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ELEVATED AND NOT POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EVOLVE INTO A STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. BREAKS OF SUN ARE
LIKELY ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO FALL IN THE
0.75 TO 1.25 IN RANGE.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN OR
CENTRAL MAINE. EAST OF THE FRONT, LOW CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WON'T BE UNTIL AN
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT THAT DRIER AIR
MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG LIKELY BY LATE
IN THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DUMBBELL DOWN FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
NORTHERN MAINE AND OVER TO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE
FRIDAY WILL MAINLY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY EVOLVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
A VORT LOBE ROTATES DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BE MAXIMIZED. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH AND SOME BREEZIER
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING RIDGE MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT
WARMUP ON LABOR DAY WITH SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN RAIN AND LOWERING
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT AUG AND RKD LIKELY
TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TO IMPROVE. MVFR AND VFR THEN RETURN
TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEB AND HIE
LATE IN THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING CONDITIONS, WITH MVFR STILL
POSSIBLE IN BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
LEB AND HIE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AT HIE, LEB, AND CON, AND STILL
POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF NEAR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS FAIR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS
WEEKEND IN NORTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS
ATLANTIC CANADA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/EKSTER/HARGROVE
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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