467
FXUS61 KGYX 061021
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
621 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MANUALLY INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF NH AND SOUTHWESTERN ME TO
ACCOUNT FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT IS CONTINUING TO PIVOT
ESE. THIS IS POORLY REPRESENTED IN MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE BUT
GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS TO EXIT THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR
THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. STUBBORN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BY MONDAY FOR FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
2. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVER NOVA
SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER NH THROUGH
THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BRING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER. AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL MAINE AND THE MOUNTAINS.
PEAK GUSTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL APPROACH 25 MPH WITH LOWER
GUSTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN NH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WILL FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHILE WINDS MAY LIMIT
DECOUPLING. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN VALLEYS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S.
HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MONDAY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH
TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THAT MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS COULD PRODUCE WETTING RAINS, BUT
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN THAT. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BELOW AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES THEN.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... -RA AND MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NH THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE CIGS/VIS VFR WITH SCT MVFR CIG
AT TIMES. A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR IS LIKELY AT HIE/LEB IN VALLEY
FOG. MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH NW WINDS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG LIKELY BRINGING IFR/LIFR TO LEB AND HIE.
NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY: VFR, NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY: LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY: BECOMING VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25 KT
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA, BUT SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVER ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
OVERNIGHT TO 5 OR 6 FEET OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AND REMAIN BREEZY, SO SEAS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/PALMER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...TUBBS
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