031
FXUS61 KGYX 070008
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
808 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
2. A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND IT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PROXIMITY TO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS BEING HELPED BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY, AND
THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AS INSOLATION DECREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP A GENTLE
BREEZE IN THE REGION. DID OPT TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST
COMMON RADIATIONAL COOLING LOCATIONS AS THESE SHOULD BE MORE
SHELTERED AT THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS SOME MID 40S FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS AND SW NH.
IT WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY MONDAY, THIS TIME WITH LESS MOISTURE AND
A DRIER AIRMASS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. ITS POSSIBLE DEWPOINTS
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER, WHICH COULD RESULT IN RH VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLACE A SUB-1000 MB MSLP LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU QUEBEC NORTH OF THE GASPE PENINSULA WED
INTO THU. PRECIP WILL LARGELY BE CENTERED AROUND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER TIMING-WISE AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCALLY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, OWING TO A MODEST LLJ OF 40-50
KNOTS ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK
PRETTY STABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SO I AM NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT GUSTS FROM THAT LLJ. IT WILL ALSO ADVECT IN HIGHER
MOISTURE, AND DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 60 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME NOMINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES, ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME THUNDER THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. CSU
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW PARTS OF THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND MTNS WITH A SMALL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AS THE CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING STANDS I THINK
THAT IS UNLIKELY.
THE PRECIP ITSELF WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. SO I DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
THIS IS YET ANOTHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE EVENT, WHICH IS MORE
OR LESS WHAT THE NBM IS FORECASTING AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. ON THU AS MIXING
HEIGHTS INCREASE THAT WILL LEAD TO A GUSTY DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER A FEW SPOTS MAY PUSH 40 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL WESTERN MAINE. ONCE THAT COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION, FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT MAY BE
CHILLY ACROSS MANY SPOTS. SOME WIDESPREAD 40S ARE LIKELY, AND A
THE NORTHERN VALLEY COLD SPOTS MAY BE FLIRTING WITH UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED WITH N WINDS
DIMINISHING. VALLEY FOG LIKELY BRINGS LIFR TO HIE AND LEB WHILE
LIGHT WINDS KEEP FOG FROM FORMING ELSEWHERE. VFR MON WITH GUSTS
AGAIN UP TO 20 KT FROM THE NW.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY: LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.
THURSDAY: BECOMING VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25 KT
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS CYCLONIC FLOW
WEAKENS FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
SCA CONDITIONS STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR ALL WATERS WED
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. NBM DOES HAVE
SOME PATCHES OF 34 KT GUSTS, BUT I THINK IT WILL BE TOO STABLE
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS UNLESS THE LLJ CAN INCREASE IN STRENGTH ON
MODELING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FT, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF JEFFREYS LEDGE, WITH SOME 7 FT SEAS SOUTHEAST OF
MISM1. AS THOSE SLOWLY DIMINISH THU THAT MAY PROLONG SCA
CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/LEGRO
AVIATION...SCHROETER
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