499
FXUS61 KGYX 071032
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. TWEAKED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
2. A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY, AND
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION AND EXITS INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. A NW GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER AIR 850 MB
WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW 80S NEAR THE
COAST THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER WHILE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER JAMES BAY INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A
CORRIDOR OF 40-50 KT SW WINDS AT 900 MB TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK STABLE NEAR THE COAST WHILE THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM UPSTREAM MAY
REACH PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY THROUGH NORTHERN NH BEFORE
INSTABILITY COMPLETELY WANES WITH THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT
WESTERLY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN
PRESENT OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SOME SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MIXING TO 850 MB. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 MPH AND SOME SPOTS APPROACHING 40 MPH.
THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT COULD BRING NORTHERN VALLEYS INTO THE
30S FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING EXCEPT
AT LEB AND HIE WHERE VALLEY FG WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR-LIFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH AROUND 13Z. VFR PREVAILS TODAY WITH GUSTS
AGAIN UP TO 20 KT FROM THE NW. VFR LIKELY TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
VALLEY FOG AT LEB AND HIE.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY: LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.
THURSDAY: BECOMING VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25 KT
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WESTERLY SHIFTING SW AT TIMES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THEY SHIFT SW
WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD ABOVE 5 FT, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF JEFFREYS LEDGE, WITH
SOME 7 FT SEAS SOUTHEAST OF MISM1. SW WINDS WILL COME DOWN FROM
THEIR PEAK THURSDAY WHILE SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/SCHROETER
AVIATION...TUBBS
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