862
FXUS61 KGYX 081046
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NH INTO WESTERN
MAINE.
2. A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATE WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAY BREAK.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING,
RECENT RUNS OF HI RES GUIDANCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MAINE
COAST THROUGH MID MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH AROUND MID
DAY WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY, CROSS THE HUDSON BAY AT NIGHT, AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (50 TO 90
PERCENT) WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT ALMOST
EVERYWHERE WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT TOTALS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE, BUT SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO MOVE
OVERHEAD. UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE MAY ONCE AGAIN MISS OUT ON THE HIGHER TOTALS AND
WILL LIKELY SEE LESS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY TO MID
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY: CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND COASTAL MAINE, AND
THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW LOWER 80S
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASSACHUSETTS BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AFTER IT SWEEPS THROUGH.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES (2 TO 4
MB) WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GUSTY WINDS TO MIX THEIR
WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION, THE LATEST NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 40 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER FOR THOSE AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT WITH SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR/COASTAL MAINE. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE SOME COOLER LOWS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT LINGERING
BREEZY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH,
TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER, DRY, AND BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 30 MPH OR SO THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 70S
SOUTH. WINDS THEN RELAX UNDER A CLEAR SKY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO FANTASTIC RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH SOME 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
THE NEXT TROUGH AND FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO OUR
NEXT LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF
LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAY BREAK. ANY
REMAINING LIFR AT LEB IMPROVES BY MIDMORNING. BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AT HIE, AUG, AND RKD.
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF VALLEY FOG.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND IFR TO EVEN LIFR
WILL BE AT HIE-AUG-RKD WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE IN DEGREE OF
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD PWM AND THE SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS. GUSTS OUT
OF THE S TO SW AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT, POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 35 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT HIE
AND LEB BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHILE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS DURING THE DAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE INITIAL FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/SCHROETER
AVIATION...CLAIR
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