936
FXUS61 KGYX 091039
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
639 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
2. GUSTY WINDS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT LOW IMPACT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY MOVES INTO QUEBEC. THE WARM FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS MORNING. AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WHILE THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS VERMONT AND APPROACH THE CT VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHILE MOST AREAS WILL
SEE 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PWATS MAY
ALLOW PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WHILE OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY ONLY PICKING UP A
TENTH OF AN INCH. SHOWERS WILL END NW TO SE GOING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WE COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING BUT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALREADY BE BREEZY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL TURN
FAIRLY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AFTER
IT SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND DECENT 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES (2 TO 4 MB) WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GUSTY WINDS TO MIX THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A STRONGER OUTLIER WITH
REGARDS TO WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER, BUT WIDESPREAD GUSTS
IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH SEEM REASONABLE WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER FOR THOSE AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT WITH SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR/COASTAL MAINE. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE SOME COOLER LOWS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT LINGERING
BREEZY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH,
TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH REGARDS TO FRIDAY'S FORECAST AND BEYOND:
COOLER, DRY, AND BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH. WINDS THEN RELAX
UNDER A CLEAR SKY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
THE NEXT TROUGH AND FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY, LEADING
TO OUR NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE LOW IMPACT
AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
AFTER AND LINGERING VALLEY FOG AT LEB AND HIE CLEARS EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH
SHRA LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AROUND 06Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND SHRA EXIT OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT, POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 35 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT HIE
AND LEB BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERALLY VFR, WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND TURN SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SW WINDS TO 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET WILL KEEP SCA
CONDITIONS GOING OUTSIDE THE BAYS THURSDAY WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THEY SHIFT W TO NW. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
ON THE WATERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING 25 KTS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/SCHROETER
AVIATION...CLAIR
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