664
FXUS61 KGYX 092240
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE. FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT RELIEF IS UNLIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
2. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS A SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASONS, THE WARM FRONT HAS DEFINITELY
GOTTEN BOGGED DOWN TRYING TO LIFT THRU THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THAT IS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SOME SPRINKLES THAT CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THEY ARE FIGHTING SOME DRY
AIR STILL, SO NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS TAKING PLACE JUST YET.
SLOWLY BUT SURELY WE SATURATE AND MORE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
REACHING THE GROUND. I THINK NEARLY EVERYWHERE WILL ACCUMULATE
SOME RAINFALL THRU TONIGHT, BUT I DO NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
RELIEF IN STORE FOR ANYWHERE. THERE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON
THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. EVEN THEN I HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
MUCH MORE THAN 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES. RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MIXING UP TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLE, SO I HAVE MAINTAINED THE TREND OF BUMPING UP
NBM WIND GUSTS FOR WIDESPREAD 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS. THE UPPER TROF
AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT ARE NOT FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA UNTIL
THU EVENING. SO DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING HELPS GET READINGS
INTO THE 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE MAKES IT'S EXIT OFF THE CANADIAN COAST AND INTO
THE NORTHERN NORTH ATLANTIC FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MAKE IT'S WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST WHICH BRIEFLY
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MAKES FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN A COLDER AIRMASS
ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND +5 TO +8 C. FULL SUN
SHOULD ALLOW US TO MIX DOWN THE FULL POTENTIAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND LOW TO
MID-70S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO
QUICKLY DROP FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM AND CLOUDS REMAIN
SPARSE. I THINK WE EASILY DECOUPLE WITH AT LEAST WIDESPREAD LOW
TO MID-40S A VERY LIKELY SOLUTION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. I
HAVE BLENDED IN SOME COOLER MOS GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS, BUT I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE TO GO EVEN COLDER AS MORE HI-
RES GUIDANCE THAT BETTER HANDLES RADITATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD SATURDAY COINCIDING WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING, ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO END UP IN THE
70S ACROSS THE AREA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +10 TO +12 C
WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AIDING IN MAXING OUT MIXING POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT STAND
TO END UP IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH BRINGS ABOUT OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS, ALBEIT LOW. THE SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLES IS
INCREASING, BUT IT IS STILL IS NOT GREAT SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK
OFF DRY, BUT ANOTHER SIGNAL IS EMERGING TOWARD MIDWEEK AND THIS
ONE INITIALLY APPEARS STRONGER. MODELS HAVE SOME SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT ALL SUGGEST ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG LOW
DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH THURSDAY...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE WE WAIT FOR RAIN TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT, WITH MAYBE PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH STAYING VFR. THERE MAY
BE SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY AND MIDCOAST WITH LOWER CIGS. RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK
HEAVY ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT VIS, BUT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM EVENING THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH A MODEST LLJ ALOFT. HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND FOR THAT REASON I HAVE NOT INCLUDED
LLWS IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT THU NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THRU THE DAY. ALL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT 25 TO
30 KT GUSTS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT
LEB AND HIE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT HIE AND LEB
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: GENERALLY VFR, WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU TONIGHT. A SCA
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS. FRONTS MOVING
OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK MAY CREATE SOME BRIEFLY ROUGH CONDITIONS, BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THEIR STRENGTH.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/EKSTER/LEGRO
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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