672
FXUS61 KGYX 122309
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
709 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS SATURDAY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS PERIODS OF
RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
2. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING INCREASED SHOWER
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING WITH A PAIR OF
SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A
COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW MORNING AND EXITING EAST OF CAPE COD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RAPID INCREASE OF DEEP
MOISTURE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS PWATS CLIMB TO 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW STARTED TO SHOW BROAD
FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO AN AXIS OF RAIN EXTENDING NORTH
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS MUCH OF NH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT INCREASE OF QPF THERE.
THIS AXIS OF RAIN WILL THEN BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS AREAS TO THE NW SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. RAIN THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE BY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL APPROACH CT VALLEY AFTER SUNSET WHILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING MU CAPE TO KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST. INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF
WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES NORTH OF THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND
INCREASE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH AN AREAL AVERAGE OF 0.75
INCHES ACROSS SW NH. LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF SOME CONVECTIVE PROCESSES CAN BE REALIZED WITH THE
INITIAL AXIS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NH. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH NW TO SE
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IT WILL BE A GUSTY DAY WITH NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE 30S
ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER WITH READINGS INTO THE 40S AND
50S.
SHOWER CHANCES THEN INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06-09Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CIGS QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR THROUGH
12Z. PERIODS OF IFR IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM NW TO SE
SUNDAY EVENING WHILE RESTRICTIONS LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: ANY LINGERING RESTRICTIONS EARLY IN THE
MORNING WILL QUICKLY LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DAYTIME
NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. VALLEY FG IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AT LEB AND HIE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING
SHRA.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING
AND EXITS EAST OF CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOG. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WITH SOUTH WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING EASTERLY.
A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS OFFSHORE
BY MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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