216
FXUS61 KGYX 261019
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BUT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FIGHT
BACK AND KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT BAY UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVEN EARLY EVENING. THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS
BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITION CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. SPLASH-
OVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES BEGINNING THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
2. THIS NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. IT WILL TURN DRIER AND WARMER ONCE THE STORM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WELL DEVELOPED NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, WITH WINDS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ALREADY PUSHING STORM FORCE. THE BIG TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR
MODELS TO REMAIN FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL
THIS DOES LITTLE TO REDUCE THE MARINE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM,
HENCE WHY THIS SECTION IS BROKEN OUT ON ITS OWN.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO A
CONSISTENT 8 TO 12 FEET FROM THE CENTRAL MAINE SHELF BUOY
SOUTHWARD. COMBINED WITH PERIODS OVER 10 SECONDS AND IT IS AN
IDEAL SITUATION FOR DANGEROUS NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP
CURRENTS. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUN.
SEAS LOOK TO PEAK SOMETIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR DURING THE
EVENING, SOMEWHERE AROUND 15 TO 17 FT NEAR JEFFREY'S LEDGE.
BUILDING SEAS AND STEADY NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO BE
IDEAL FOR GENERATING A LARGE STORM SURGE. IT IS ALREADY SITTING
AT 0.75 TO 1 FT WITH PLENTY OF TIME LEFT TO BUILD THAT THRU SAT.
OUR SURGE FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT, SO I WILL
NUDGE THAT DOWN SLIGHTLY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL TIDES ARE
NOT THEIR HIGHEST OF THE MONTH, BUT RISING. GIVEN THAT WE NEED
AT LEAST 2 FT OF SURGE TO SEE FLOODING AT MOST LOCATIONS I THINK
THIS WILL BE A PRIMARILY SPLASH-OVER EVENT. THAT BEING SAID THE
USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING, AND THE FACT
THAT THIS OCCURS OVER SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES AND THE DUNES MAY GET
WORN DOWN COULD MEAN LATER TIDES SUN AND MON HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT THOSE INUNDATION ISSUES IN THE TROUBLE SPOTS. THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUN.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE BIGGEST CHANGE THE SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD HAS CAUSED IS
REDUCING THE IMPACT OF BOTH WINDS AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA.
I STILL EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD (> 48 HOURS) OF WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH GREATER AT OR ABOVE 35
MPH. WITH THE CORE OF THE NORTHEAST LLJ SHIFTED SO FAR SOUTH
NOW, IT IS HARD TO REALLY SEE MUCH SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD 45+
MPH GUSTS. THAT IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO A NARROW WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEACOAST. OTHERWISE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSISTENT MIXING HEIGHT TAPPING THE
BOTTOM OF THE LLJ AROUND 35 KT. THE NBM DOES TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT, SO MY PREFERENCE IS TO INCREASE THOSE OVERNIGHT WINDS
BUT DURING THE DAY LOOKS FINE. HRRR GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD
IN THAT RESPECT, SO I WILL BLEND THAT IN TO THE NBM GUIDANCE.
STILL WITH LEAVES LEFT ON TREES THERE IS A LIMITED POWER OUTAGE
THREAT FROM FALLING LIMBS.
RAINFALL MAY BE WHAT TAKES THE BIGGEST HIT FROM THE SHIFT SOUTH.
STEADY RAINFALL MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE NBM POP
MAY HAVE TO GET DELAYED A BIT AGAIN. THERE IS ALSO A NOTED
TRANSITION TOWARDS MORE SHOWERY OR WAVES OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE FILLS AND FORCING BECOMES LESS INTENSE. ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
HAVE ALL BUT TAKEN THE EXTREME RAINFALL SCENARIOS OFF THE
TABLE. THERE ARE JUST A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS PRODUCING AMOUNTS
OVER 4 INCHES NOW. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR A GOOD SOAKING
RAIN (AROUND 1 INCH OR MORE) WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MTNS, WITH THE
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR MORE CONFINED TO
THE AREA FROM PORTLAND TO THE LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE MONADNOCKS. THE SOUTHWEST SHIFT ALSO MEANS THAT IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT MOVES BACK NORTHEAST
EVENTUALLY, SO THE LIKELY POP AND GREATER HAS BEEN EXTENDED
FURTHER INTO MON AND MON NIGHT.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH MORNING, BUT
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING AS THE DAY GOES ON AND RAIN APPROACHES
THE REGION. COASTAL TERMINALS LIKELY FALL TO MVFR BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH INLAND TERMINALS BARELY HOLDING ON TO VFR. BRIEF
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVER A
TERMINAL. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE
20-25KTS TODAY WITH 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY: WIDESPREAD MVFR LIKELY, AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST IN RAIN. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NORTHEAST
SURFACE GUSTS OF 35 KT OR MORE, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS PSM.
MONDAY: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/SHOWERS. NORTH NORTHEAST
SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BUILD WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE WORST OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY THRU TONIGHT. GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
BUT THE BAYS, WITH A STRONG SCA IN THE BAYS. THOSE CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THRU SUN BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO MON EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS
AND SEAS TOWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ023>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ154-180-182-184.
UPDATE...BARON
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/LEGRO
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