573
FXUS61 KGYX 281029
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR COASTAL YORK/ROCKINGHAM
COUNTIES TO COVER THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING WAVE ACTION AND ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
MAY RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING IN THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
LOCATIONS. ALSO, EXTENDED THE SCA FOR W. PENOBSCOT BAY THROUGH
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR NEAR-TERM GRID UPDATES AND
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ON AND OFF RAINS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BUT WINDS DECREASE AS
WELL AS OFFSHORE SEAS AS THE NOR'EASTER GRADUALLY WEAKENS. ROUGH
SURF AND A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AT THE
BEACHES.
2. AFTER THE NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS TURN
WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING THE WEAKENING NOR'EASTER IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NY. THE CENTER OF THE STORM, WHILE
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WILL PASS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT.
THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM FROM HERE ON OUT ARE BANDS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ROTATING IN FROM OFF THE OCEAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SO FAR THE BANDS SEEM RATHER NARROW SO NOT EVERYONE
WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND A RAW
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS CONTINUING TO
DECREASE.
HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE AROUND MIDDAY COMBINES WITH LARGE
SWELL. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL AS POTENTIALLY CAUSING ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. SOME MINOR
SPLASHOVER REMAINS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER THE NOR'EASTER MOVES OFFSHORE, THE 500MB PATTERN LOOKS TO
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A STRAY
SHOWER TO GENERATE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT MOST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER ON FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT IS
POISED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT-CHANCE CATEGORY, AS
THE FRONT REMAINS WEAK AND ANY INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME A MODEST SUBSIDENCE LAYER. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING
IN PERIODS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT ARE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDING. MOST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY THE COAST,
WILL SEE NORTHEAST SURFACE GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KT TODAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. LLWS IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO AT LEAST MVFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR EXPECTED MOST PLACES. OCCL SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AT HIE.
MARINE
GALES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. A SCA NOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UNTIL THE WINDS AND SEAS DROP TO BELOW 25KT AND/OR 5 FEET. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING
BELOW THRESHOLDS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE NOR'EASTER ON TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WAVES
LIKELY FALL BELOW 5FT BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THEN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>027.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/CLAIR/EKSTER
AVIATION...TUBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page