134
FXUS61 KGYX 281724 AAB
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
124 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ON AND OFF RAINS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BUT WINDS DECREASE AS
WELL AS OFFSHORE SEAS AS THE NOR'EASTER GRADUALLY WEAKENS. ROUGH
SURF AND A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AT THE
BEACHES.
2. AFTER THE NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS TURN
WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING THE WEAKENING NOR'EASTER IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NY. THE CENTER OF THE STORM, WHILE
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WILL PASS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT.
THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM FROM HERE ON OUT ARE BANDS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ROTATING IN FROM OFF THE OCEAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SO FAR THE BANDS SEEM RATHER NARROW SO NOT EVERYONE
WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND A RAW
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS CONTINUING TO
DECREASE.
HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE AROUND MIDDAY COMBINES WITH LARGE
SWELL. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL AS POTENTIALLY CAUSING ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. SOME MINOR
SPLASHOVER REMAINS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER THE NOR'EASTER MOVES OFFSHORE, THE 500MB PATTERN LOOKS TO
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A STRAY
SHOWER TO GENERATE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT MOST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER ON FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT IS
POISED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT-CHANCE CATEGORY, AS
THE FRONT REMAINS WEAK AND ANY INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME A MODEST SUBSIDENCE LAYER. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SUMMARY: RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO
EAST ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS: LIFR/IFR SOUTH/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CONTINUING AT HIE/LEB. DETERIORATION TO LIFR
DOMINATING MOST LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED IN RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND
FOG. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AT
HIE/LEB TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT CON.
WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 10G16KTS /WEAKER INLAND/ WILL GRADUALLY
BACK MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY
WHILE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10KTS.
LLWS: NO LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDER: NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MARINE
GALES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. A SCA NOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UNTIL THE WINDS AND SEAS DROP TO BELOW 25KT AND/OR 5 FEET. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING
BELOW THRESHOLDS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE NOR'EASTER ON TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WAVES
LIKELY FALL BELOW 5FT BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THEN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>027.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
AVIATION...ARNOTT
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