272
FXUS61 KGYX 281838
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT AS WATER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO FALL POST-HIGH TIDE. THIS SHOULD BE THE FINAL TIDE
WITH COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WEAKENING NOR'EASTER WILL BRING ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH COASTAL IMPACTS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BEFORE
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
2. TEMPERATURES MOVE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO END THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
VERTICALLY STACKED AND DECAYING NOR'EASTER TO SPIN SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND....BUT HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL LEAD IT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUS...WE EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF RAINFALL AND ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE DRYING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY.
SOME DETAILS FOLLOW...
RAIN: BANDS OF SHOWERS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES IT/S CLOSEST
APPROACH. HREF PMM GRAPHICS SUGGEST SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST
MAY SEE ANOTHER 0.5-0.75" OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNTS
TRAILING OFF AS YOU HEAD INLAND. RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE AND THEREFORE NO FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT
INSTEAD A BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WIND: THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE NH COAST..AND
25-30MPH ALONG THE ME COAST TODAY. THESE WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING AND BACK MORE NORTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
COASTAL IMPACTS: SURGE VALUES OF CONTINUE AROUND 1'BUT WILL
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WITH THE NEXT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LOWER THAN
THE ONE THAT JUST PASSED...WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS/ETC. AS FOR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY...6-10 FOOTERS
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED WAVE ACTION...WELL EVIDENT ON
COASTAL WEBCAMS THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND THEN CRESTS WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING EACH DAY. BY THURSDAY...T8S PUSH TO AROUND 13C WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MOVE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A
FEW SPOTS LIKELY TOUCHING 80. THIS IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. A STRENGTHENING
POLAR JET ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. AT THIS RANGE...THERE IS ONLY
MODEST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SEEN
AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, NO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AFTER TONIGHT/S RAINFALL. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD USHER IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SUMMARY: RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
MOVES NORTH AND EAST. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO
EAST ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS: LIFR/IFR SOUTH/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CONTINUING AT HIE/LEB. DETERIORATION TO LIFR
DOMINATING MOST LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED IN RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND
FOG. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AT
HIE/LEB TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT CON.
WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 10G16KTS /WEAKER INLAND/ WILL GRADUALLY
BACK MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY
WHILE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10KTS.
LLWS: NO LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDER: NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCA WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOR'EASTER
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING
WITH SEAS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECT HEADLINE-
FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NEAR SCA LEVELS...BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
REGION.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>027.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
ARNOTT
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