935
FXUS61 KGYX 291024
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN CASCO BAY TO EXPIRE.
OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS EAST TODAY
WITH MUCH OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL ENDING THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED.
2. TEMPERATURES RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING NOR'EASTER TRACKING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING NW
TO SE THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
SHIFT N TO NW THROUGH TODAY. WAVES HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND AND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH ALONG THE COAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60F ACROSS THE NORTH TO 70F
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ELEVATED AND WILL STAY
THAT WAY INTO TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH, TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST.
THEN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
70S, POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, HIGHS
WILL PROBABLY BE BACK IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (20 TO 30 PERCENT) ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH BUT WE WILL SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SOME GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT RAIN
MAKER WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR UNTIL 12Z AND LONGER
AT AUG AND RKD. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NH TAF
SITES. AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS TO
LEB AND HIE WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. NO LLWS
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25 KTS WHILE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
GREATER THAN 5 FEET INTO THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A WEAKENING NOR'EASTER EXITS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID WEEK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL NEAR SCA LEVELS BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATER FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
REGION.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/HARGROVE/SCHROETER
AVIATION...TUBBS
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