189
FXUS61 KGYX 011057
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
657 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY AND
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY EVENING.
2. COOLER, CRISP CONDITIONS FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD. SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY BRINGS THE ONLY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WITH A COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST IS LOOKING LESS STURDY
FOR TODAY THAN GUIDANCE HAS PORTRAYED OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST
CYCLES. SHORT WAVE OVER UPSTATE NY WILL CROSS AFTER DAY BREAK
AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE MUCH OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE. CLOUD COVER IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL,
STILL LOOKING AT A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING CLOSER TO
THE MID TO LOW 70S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS NH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE TODAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DRY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S FOR LOWS AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND CROSS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S SHOULDN'T BE
A PROBLEM. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FROPA
AND INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DOWNWARD TRENDS IN
HIGHS ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME INSTANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA AVERAGING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
WHILE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SEASONABLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHT'S FRONT AS
850 MB TEMPS NOSEDIVE TO 2-5 C BY SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL BE
QUITE AN AIRMASS CHANGE. EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS DEW POINTS FALLING
FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO 30S ON SATURDAY, IN SOME LOCATIONS A 30
DEGREE DROP WITHIN 18-24 HOURS! HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STILL REACH THE
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A VERY
DIFFERENT AIRMASS FROM FRIDAY WITH A TRUE CRISP FALL FEEL!
VERY STRONG AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSSING THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR TO THE FIRST WAVE, A BIT OF A
GLANCING BLOW WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WELL TO
THE NORTH UP IN QUEBEC. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SPLIT AS ECMWF MEMBERS
SHOW SOME SOUTHERN WAVE ENERGY CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION AGAIN
MONDAY DURING THE DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES CLOSE TO THE BEST FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. GFS SOLUTIONS MEANWHILE SHOW THESE FEATURES
SPLITTING THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR NOW THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS STILL UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN WITH WETTER
SOLUTIONS, TOTALS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE IMPRESSIVE GIVEN A
PROGRESSIVE SETUP COMBINED WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. MOST LIKELY
IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY AND EVENING RAIN
CHANCES, WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH DAYS SHOULD
FEATURE HIGHS NEAR 60 TO MID 60S, BUT MONDAY MAY BE COOLER IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
VERY LIKELY THE COLDEST WEATHER SINCE THE SPRING ARRIVES TUESDAY
ONWARD WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -7C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING ON GUIDANCE. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN SUCCESSFULLY
DECOUPLE WITH WINDS SLACKING, IT IS LIKELY A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF
THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON
TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH FULL MIXING/SUNSHINE, HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VERY CHILLY AIR
ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...FOG AND LOW CIGS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PWM, AUG, RKD, AND LEB LINGERS INTO MID-MORNING. VFR LIKELY
PREVAILS THE REST OF TODAY WHILE MARINE FOG MAY LINGER NEAR PWM
AND RKD INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN,
VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP AT HIE AND LEB, BUT MORE CLOUDS AHEAD
AN APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS FRONT COULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO HIE LATE. LLWS IS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOCAL IFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT IN
VALLEY FOG.
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25
KT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
WILL KEEP PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THESE
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS OFFSHORE WITH
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER CAA ACROSS THE WARM WATERS IS
LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD FOR SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS
INTO THE BAYS AS WELL.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...CLAIR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page