830
FXUS61 KGYX 020005
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
805 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT RETURNS THE REGION TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.
2. A POLAR AIR MASS BRINGS THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON EARLY NEXT WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST HARD FREEZE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPS VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS FRI MORNING MAY
ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THAT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRI.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS, WHERE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TO CAP DAYTIME HEATING. HERE I
BLENDED IN HI-RES GUIDANCE TO THE NBM TO KNOCK THOSE READINGS
BACK INTO THE 60S. OTHERWISE THE HIGH FLOOR START TO THE DAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RUN WELL INTO THE 70S AGAIN WITH SOME 80S
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL NOT BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE ANY RAIN WILL MAKE
VALLEY/RADIATION FOG MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS WE CLEAR OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A POLAR AIR MASS BRINGS THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS SEASON EARLY NEXT WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST HARD FREEZE.
DISCUSSION: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER. THE FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. FROM THE
FOOTHILLS SOUTH, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME TO WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SO
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LIKELY WAKES UP TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH SO AFTER A CHILLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO REBOUND MUCH AND LIKELY ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID- 60S AREAWIDE. ON THE OTHER HAND,
CLOUDS STAY ABUNDANT SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT
CURRENTLY VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS BEING A WORTHWHILE
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH DECREASE TO 10 TO 30 PERCENT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY IS GOING TO BE THE COLD DRY AIRMASS
THAT FILLS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. IN FACT, ANY SHOWERS THAT
LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT MAY TRANSITION TO LIGHT
SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO MID-50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AND WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, BREEZY WINDS MAY MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO -5 TO 0 C
THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE FLOOR FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT NBM IS CAPTURING THIS
REASONABLY WELL WITH UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS, AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN. I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THOSE TEMPERATURES ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN COME DOWN AS WE GET INTO THE HI-RES WINDOW AS IT LOOKS
LIKE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THESE ZONES ARE
ALSO STILL ELIGIBLE FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS, SO THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND WE SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF
FRI. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STIR THE AIR ENOUGH TONIGHT
TO AVOID BOTH VALLEY FOG AND MARINE FOG/STRATUS. LATE MORNING
A FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOWERING CIGS AND SHRA TO
HIE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN RATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF. CLEARING
SKIES FRI NIGHT WILL PROMOTE VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND HIE
AND LEB.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY: GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
TUESDAY: VFR PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU FRI AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO
KEEP MARINE FOG/STRATUS CONFINED TO DOWNEAST MAINE OR NOVA
SCOTIA. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS EVEN AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
WATERS. HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND MAY ELEVATE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/LEGRO
AVIATION...SCHROETER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page