780
FXUS61 KGYX 020630
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
230 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND A
COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY.
THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE FALL SO FAR IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
BEHIND IT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ALONG THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING SETTING
A HIGH FLOOR FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE SKIES TURNING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY PEAK HEATING TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVING
THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT HIGHS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE 60S. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE FOCUSES THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS MAY FAIL TO REALIZE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. FOR THOSE
THAT DO SEE SOME SHOWERS QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH
OF INCH OR LESS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF ANY CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES CAN MATERIALIZE.
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE AROUND SUNSET WITH SKIES
CLEARING TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THAT COULD ALLOW FOR LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH
WITH FROST POTENTIAL EXPANDING SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. DESPITE A RATHER STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, IT LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A GLANCING BLOW WITH
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH UP IN QUEBEC.
GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE TWO EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
1.) SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH ABOUT HALF OF CURRENT
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RAIN FULLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
2.) ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE CLOSEST TO THE BEST FORCING.
NEITHER WAVE IS A SLAM DUNK OR EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SOAKING
RAINS DUE TO QUICK SHORTWAVE MOTIONS AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN
FACT, THERE IS THE CHANCE A SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEES
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE TWO WAVES SPLITTING THE AREA.
THE REAL COOL DOWN ARRIVES BY TUESDAY MORNING. VERY LIKELY THE
COLDEST WEATHER SINCE THE SPRING ARRIVES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -7C BY TUESDAY MORNING
DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. EVEN 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ON GUIDANCE. NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS LOWS
REACHING THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S IN THE INTERIOR WITH 30S ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST, WHICH WOULD EASILY BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FALL
SO FAR. HOWEVER THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINGENT ON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING, AND GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-
50+ KTS AT 850 MB DRIVEN BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO WOULD SAY
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HERE IS NOT YET HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WON'T TAKE MUCH MIXING ON TUESDAY TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT,
SO CAN EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY, AND WITH HIGHS THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO
HIT 60, THERE WILL BE A FALL CHILL IN THE AIR.
DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTING OVERHEAD. LIKELY WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD START
DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS BETTER DECOUPLING WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A SLACKING PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR COMFORTABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TODAY. LATE MORNING A FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
LOWERING CIGS AND SHRA TO HIE THAT LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF AT
LEAST MVFR. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN RATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF. CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND HIE
AND LEB.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY: GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY: VFR PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS OFFSHORE WHILE
WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT CROSSING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS IN STRONG CAA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/SCHROETER
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