627
FXUS61 KGYX 021849
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT RETURNING US TO
SEASONABLE WEATHER. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS TONIGHT.
2. A POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE THEIR
FIRST HARD FREEZE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP THRU THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT ARE LARGELY ANAFRONTAL, WITH A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ON RADAR. SO
VERY WARM TEMPS WILL GET KNOCKED BACK TO THE LOW 70S AS THAT
PASSES, AND THEN RAIN COOLED AIR WILL DROP THINGS A BIT MORE
INTO THE 60S THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RAIN STILL, WITH AMOUNTS AT OR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH EARLY, BUT GENERALLY I ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S. ANY LOCATION THAT SAW SOME
RAIN WILL BE A DECENT CANDIDATE FOR RADIATION FOG, AND I HAVE
MAINTAINED FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.
SAT WILL BE A SEASONABLE DAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
IMPACTS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER
NIGHTS SO FAR THIS SEASON. STILL AT THIS POINT I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE 30S REACHING TOO FAR INTO THE ACTIVE GROWING SEASON
ZONES AND THUS A NEED FOR FROST HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS ARE GOING
TO BUILD IN EARLY WHICH IS GOING TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID-60S. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO GOING TO MAKE FOR A
MORE MILD NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES ON MONDAY AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE MOSTLY DRY. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS THAN 30% SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
(30-40%) AS GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW A WEAK COASTAL LOW
GENERATING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE, ANY MEANINGFUL
CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER WHERE RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IF THEY LINGER
LONGER ENOUGH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GOING TO BE THE COLD, DRY AIR THAT FILLS IN
BEHIND IT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -7 TO 0 C BY EARLY
TUESDAY SO I WOULD ANTICIPATE IT BEING A COLD NIGHT, BUT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES PHASE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE RESULTING BREEZY WINDS SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA FROM DECOUPLING. NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S, AND TO THE
SOUTH THEY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE BREEZY WINDS
CARRY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, SO DESPITE A SUNNY DAY IT IS
LIKELY GOING TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S IN THE NORTH, AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW THE WIND GUSTS
PAN OUT IT COULD FEEL A BIT COLDER. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR AND CERTAINLY WILL BE IF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO GO CALM. THE
LATEST NBM IS HEDGING THAT WAY, BRINGING NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY DOWN THE COAST. MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST HARD FREEZE (AT THE VERY LEAST
FIRST FROST), BUT MOST OF THESE ZONES ALSO ENDED THEIR WINDOW
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS YESTERDAY. THE COASTAL PLAIN IS THE
LAST AREA THAT CAN STILL HAVE THEM ISSUED AND IF FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING PANS OUT, I CAN SEE THAT BEING NECESSARY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP US SUNNY AND DRY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
TROUGH WITH LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD FRONT SLIPS THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOCAL
MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THRU SAT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY BRING LOCAL
LIFR TO LEB AND HIE ALONG WITH OTHER MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. I
COULD SEE IT SNEAKING INTO CON BY SUNRISE, BUT UNLESS MEASURABLE
RAIN FALLS IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY I DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT THERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY: GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED
BEYOND A WIND SHIFT TO OFFSHORE. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY ELEVATE SEAS AND WIND
GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/LEGRO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page