628
FXUS61 KGYX 052352
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
752 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST THINKING THIS MONDAY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR ARRIVES THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL REACH CLOSE TO THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
2. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND COMING WEEKEND WITH THE PRIMARY CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TAKING THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
POTENT COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POPPING UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ACCOMPANIED THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS. T8S THIS
MORNING OFF THE 12Z GYX RAOB WERE +8C AND WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND
-4C BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...REMAINING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CAA WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH WE/LL REMAIN COUPLED
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FROST OVER AREAS THAT STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE
GROWING SEASON.
SPEAKING OF WIND...THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TUESDAY WITH
H9 GRADIENT WINDS 30-40KTS. WHILE MIXING WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
TUESDAY...CAA WILL HAVE CEASED AND THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE MUCH
ISALLOBARIC ASSISTANCE TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. SO...EXPECT SURFACE
GUSTS TO REACH LEVELS A BIT UNDER THE H9 WINDS...GENERALLY 35-40MPH.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT ADDED ANY WIND HEADLINES TO THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
A CHILLY NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ARRIVING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND
DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES. ALL BUT OUR MOST COASTAL SITES LOOK LIKELY
TO SEE A FROST...WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY FURTHER INLAND WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED. BLENDED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH
THE NBM WHICH BRINGS LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOWER-MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHERE
T8S WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS C WHICH...FULLY MIXED
WILL ALLOW HIGHS INTO THE 70S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOWER CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOK LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. T8S FALL BACK TOWARDS 1-3C BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BOTTOM LINE...NO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THIS WEEKEND
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SUMMARY: STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15G25KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 10G18KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS 20G25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LLWS: WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AT 2KFT...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL-MIXED WITH NO SHEAR LAYERS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE NO
LLWS IN THE TAFS.
THUNDER: AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR HIE CAN/T COMPLETELY BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO THUNDER BEYOND THAT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...OUTSIDE SOME
POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS/HIE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THE PERIOD. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY SHIFTING NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
MARINE
SCAS NEEDED ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. A FEW NW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN WATERS TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SCAS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER
THE OUTER WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS/WAVES
OTHERWISE REMAINING AOB SCA THRESHOLDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page