540
FXUS61 KGYX 070641
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING EARLY THIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A BRIEF WARM UP AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO END THE WORK WEEK.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER A COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TODAY, AS 850
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +6 TO +9 C AHEAD OF A TROUGH. WITH PLENTY
OF SUN SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FULLY MIX INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. CLOUDS MOVE IN EARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES THERE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART. THESE WARMER 850 TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO
MAKE FOR A COMPARATIVELY WARMER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
THE 07/00Z CAMS SUGGEST THE MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AT
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BOARDER IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY
MORNING, MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE AROUND DAY BREAK. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE CAMS THAT THESE PRODUCE A GENERAL
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO MISS OUT OR ONLY
GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THERE IS ALSO SOME SUGGESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IF THEY GET
UNDER A MORE ROBUST SHOWER. DRY AIR QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SO SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BECOME GREATLY REDUCED BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BREAKING OUT
INTO FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES HERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. IN THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL STAY A BIT
CLOUDIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN FIRST, TEMPERATURES LIKELY
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-60S. CONTINUED TROUGHING ALOFT
AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE FORCING TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TONIGHT.
TROUGHING SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT AREAS SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN TO -1 TO +3 C, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-60S. IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS LINGER, EXPECT TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN PUSHING LOWS INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY AS
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES
TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS
GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN WILL OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN
THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, BUT POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE OF MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW, THE AREAS MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE
GIVEN WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. AFTER A MILD START TO THE WEEK,
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
LEB AND HIE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TODAY
AT MOST TAF SITES, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT HIE AND OTHER
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON, WHEREAS MVFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, MVFR
MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WSW FLOW PREVAILING.
MARINE
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, UNTIL A
FRONTAL PASSAGE TURNS THEM MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BRING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
AND WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT, BUT OTHERWISE SUB- SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT, HIGHEST OUTSIDE
OF THE BAYS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ019-020.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ021>028.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ010-012-013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/TUBBS
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