032
FXUS61 KGYX 071845
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
245 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
2. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY COULD DOWN A FEW BRANCHES
BEFORE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY MONDAY, AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STABLE AND CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY
TO BUILD ALONG THE FRONT. RECENT CAMS INDICATE SHOWERS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT, SKIES CLEAR AND
QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE MID-DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH
UP TO 300J OF CAPE TO ACCOMPANY. THIS SETUP COULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRAY ISOLATED LOW-TOP THUNDERSTORM, WITH
EMBEDDED GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IF STORMS DEVELOP. FRIDAY'S STORM
SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR, WITH CAMS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DECENT
MIXING CONDITIONS AND AN ISOLATED STORM THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
EVEN IF THE ISOLATED STORM THREAT DOES NOT COME TO FRUITION ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, LOW-LEVEL MIXING COULD STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME MARGINAL IMPACTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SOME LOOSE TREE BRANCHES COULD COME DOWN AND
UNRESTRICTED ITEMS LIKE EMPTY GARBAGE CANS AND TENTS COULD GET
BLOWN AWAY.
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY WARMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY WITH SOME BRIEF EAST COAST RIDGING DEVELOPING. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 15C BY SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ARRIVING. IF MIXING CAN EXTEND UP TO 925 MB, THIS WOULD SPELL A MILD
DAY WITH SURFACE TEMPS REACHING THE 70S INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
QUITE A FEW MOVING PARTS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND, THEN QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY IN MUCH WEEKEND FORM. IN FACT, THE
ONLY REAL SENSIBLE IMPACT LOCALLY IS LOOKING TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A RAINY PERIOD, WHICH IS OVERALL A BEST CASE SCENARIO AS THE REGION
STILL NEEDS RAIN DUE TO ONGOING DEFICITS. RIGHT NOW THE NBM MEAN IS
UNDER HALF AN INCH REGIONWIDE, BUT SHOULD NOTE THERE IS STILL QUITE
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, AS SOME DETERMINISTIC OUTCOMES BRING
IN A SOAKING RAINFALL WITH QUITE A JUICY ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL, WHILE OTHER OUTCOMES SUPPRESS THE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING OVER THE REGION
HOLDING FIRM.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE, WITH IMPACTS RAINING FROM JUST A
CLOUDY/DRY PERIOD TO A PERIOD OF SOAKING RAINFALL ON THE TABLE. DO
EXPECT THE GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
REGARDLESS OF HOW IT EXACTLY PLAYS OUT.
SOME VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH IN THE LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL BE SEPARATE, AND NOT PHASE WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. A PERIOD OF RAIN/UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND THIS TIME, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD. A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING COULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVER THE
AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. HOWEVER, CAMS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT A
STRAY ISOLATED SHOWER COULD POP-UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND COULD
POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS BRIEFLY LOCALLY. VFR CONTINUES THURSDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERY WEATHER AS A POTENTIAL LOW
TRACKS NEAR THE REGION.
MARINE
SCA LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND 3-6FT SEAS WILL COMMENCE THIS
EVENING, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLIES AND LIGHTEN THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEAS OF 2-4FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT, HIGHEST OUTSIDE
OF THE BAYS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/PALMER
MARINE...PALMER/CLAIR
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