377
FXUS61 KGYX 081011
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
611 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE EARLY THIS THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WEST WINDS.
2. GUSTY WNW WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BLOW 20 TO 30 MPH FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY.
3. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TOPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO COLUMBUS DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH DAY BREAK
AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM. QPF WITH THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS WILL APPROACH 25-30 MPH.
DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
WILL ALLOW FOR MU CAPE TO APPROACH 500 J/KG WITH MOST CAMS
SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AS A SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. A
SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN STORY ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WNW
FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
MIXING TO 700 MB WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND
40 KTS WHILE MEAN LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS 25-30 KTS. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO PERSISTENT SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTHERN NH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT TO
OUR WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO COLUMBUS DAY. THERE REMAINS RATHER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL TIMING ALONG WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THOUGH, WITH
SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS IT MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST NAEFS
GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) UP TO AROUND 1.50"
BY MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IS ~+2 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALY. THAT
BEING SAID, LATEST AI AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 24-HR QPF OF
>=0.50" ARE GENERALLY 25% OR LESS (HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS)
AND THEREFORE ANY RAIN THAT WE MANAGE TO GET FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
VERY MANAGEABLE AND BENEFICIAL.
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD END MONDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LIKELY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT AND TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES LATE DAY/NIGHT AND
BRINGS RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES. FALLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY ALLOW
SOME OF THIS TO FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN BORDER AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL PUSH TO THE COAST AROUND 12Z.
THESE SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAF. WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GUST 20-25 KTS STARTING AROUND 16-18Z
TODAY. WINDS RELAX TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AT LEB AND HIE IF WINDS CAN GO CALM.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY: LOW CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN FRIDAY.
SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY FOR QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SW FLOW LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS NEAR THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ153-
154.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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