908
FXUS61 KGYX 090011
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
811 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY COULD
DOWN A FEW BRANCHES BEFORE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
2. RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ISAIAS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW-LEVEL MIXING COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME MARGINAL IMPACTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30MPH POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOME LOOSE TREE
BRANCHES COULD COME DOWN AND UNRESTRICTED ITEMS LIKE EMPTY GARBAGE
CANS AND TENTS COULD GET BLOWN AWAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT, IN ADDITION TO CALM
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP MUCH FURTHER
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM
UPPER 20S UP NORTH TO MID-30S ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE TO POTENTIALLY MILD THROUGH
MONDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +11-12 C. THIS RIGHT NOW
SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE 60S REGIONWIDE WITH UPSIDE FOR LOW-MID
70S IF STRONG SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR WEST
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, POSSIBLY IN TWO SEPARATE WAVES.
STARTING WITH THE FIRST WAVE, WHICH WILL BE THE DIRECT REMNANT
MOISTURE PLUME FROM ISAIAS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY STRONG
WESTERLY 300 MB FLOW AND EJECTED EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IS THE PRIMARY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT WITH A RANGE OF OUTCOMES
FROM MOSTLY DRY TO A BRIEF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT TOTALS GENERALLY ARE INDICATED TO BE AT OR BELOW
HALF AN INCH ON MOST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WITH INCREASING
POPS WITH SOUTH EXTENT.
SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE, SO MONDAY IS LOOKING
LIKE A DRY DAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING A SEPARATE OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN. RIGHT NOW CHANCES LOOK MORE WIDESPREAD THEN SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN NORTHERN
ZONES CLOSER TO THE BEST JET DYNAMICS, BUT HIGH TOTALS ARE
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE.
MILD NIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DEW POINTS AND
GREATER CLOUD COVER EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0
C BY WEDNESDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT, INDICATING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BY MID WEEK, AND POTENTIALLY A RETURN OF
CRISP NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN THAT
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LED TO SOME FOG AT RKD WITH
THIS FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE COMING HOUR OR SO. VFR
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA AT
HIE THAT COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR OR LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-5FT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK BACK
UP FRIDAY MORNING AND LOOK TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 2-4FT ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER LULL SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING CALM WINDS. SUNDAY MORNING,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY, AND SEAS INCREASE TO 3-
5FT. SCA ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MARINE ZONES ON SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS AND SEAS RETURN TO BASELINE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/PALMER
AVIATION...SCHROETER
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