405
FXUS61 KGYX 100647
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH FROST POTENTIAL TO
THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
2. TWO SHOTS OF BENEFICIAL RAIN ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND
TUESDAY, POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH FROST
POTENTIAL TO THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FINAL NIGHT OF THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM ACROSS REMAINING ACTIVE ZONES.
WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK ENE SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY. WHILE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LIKELY
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINS IN QUESTION
ALONG WITH TOTAL QPF. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN
QUITE BULLISH BRINGING 1-2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE LATEST NBM BRINGS AROUND 0.5 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING TO THE NORTH WHERE
AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SPREAD AMONGST LATEST GUIDANCE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE AFTERNOON LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL BE WARM AND ALMOST FEEL A LITTLE HUMID WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG THE FRONT. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POINTS NORTH WHILE
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS IS VARIABLE
AMONGST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE LATEST NBM BRINGS AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING TUESDAY WITH
POPS INCREASING TO 70-80 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO
CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS ON SATURDAY THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. MAINLY VFR TO
START SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING SW TO NE. MVFR
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE LOOKING INCREASING
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A PWM-LEB LINE. THIS AREA IS ALSO
MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN. TO THE NORTH, MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE BUT LESS CERTAIN. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: RAIN SHOWERS AND IFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE AS A
FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
WEDNESDAY COULD BE BREEZY AND MAINLY VFR, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE
RAIN AND SOME DEGREE OF RESTRICTIONS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SLIDES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
FOR QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. SW WINDS FRESHEN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS WHILE WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY PASSES SOUTH
OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS TURNING EAST
TO NORTHEAST BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND LIKELY FOG OVER THE WATERS. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH NE TO E WINDS GUSTING 25-30
KTS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WITH GUSTS CONTINUING TO PUSH 25 KTS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER/MLE
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