028
FXUS61 KGYX 110002
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
802 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS
THROUGH SUNDAY. FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
2. TWO SHOTS OF BENEFICIAL RAIN ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY, POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY LOW TEMP FORECAST HOWEVER AS HIGH CIRRUS OUTFLOW CLOUDS
FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE ALREADY SPILLING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. I DO NOT BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES IN NH.
I STILL THINK SOME UPPER 30S REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THOSE ZONES
THOUGH, SO NO PLANNED HEADLINE CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. I DID
ALSO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS, AS WARM
WATERS SHOULD AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME STEAM FOG IF NOT RADIATION
FOG SETTLING INTO THE LOW LYING AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THEN MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY, BUT INCREASING CLOUD AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. THAT MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS
WILL BE PUSHING NORTH BUT WILL MEET PRETTY STRONG RESISTANCE
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRANCHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM THE WHITE
MTNS TO PENOBSCOT BAY SOUTHWARD, AND HERE NBM POP LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD. THE QPF IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY BEARISH ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 1 IN 3 FOR SOUTHERNMOST NH, AND THIS IS DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BECAUSE OF THE GEPS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE DETERMINISTIC
NAM. THE PROBABILITIES FOR A WETTING RAIN (AT LEAST A TENTH OF
AN INCH) ARE AT LEAST 60 PERCENT FROM A LEB TO PWM LINE SOUTH TO
THE MASS BORDER. SO THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY RUN OF THE
MILL HIGH POP/LOWER QPF EVENT. THE ONLY UNFORTUNATE THING IS
THAT MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS THAT NEED
IT THE MOST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THRU MON AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY, BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY PLAY A
ROLE ON TUESDAY BUT IS UNCERTAIN AND MORE ON THAT BELOW.
OVERALL, TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A WET DAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ALLOW MOSTLY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. I
SAY MOSTLY RAIN AS THERE INDICATIONS OF CAD FOR AT LEAST SOME
OF THE DAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST, WHICH
WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER FOR LONGER AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY IF THE
TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS FARTHER SOUTH (LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION AND
TO SOME EXTENT THE CMC). IF TO OCCUR, THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD
BE IN THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER, THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT WHEN COMPARED WITH MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM
GLOBAL MODELS.
BACK TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS: ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS/ECWMF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50" TO
1.00" OF RAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, EXCEPT LESS AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 0.50" TOWARD PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NH.
MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSING AND
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN...GENERALLY SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. HIGHER CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW, WHERE COLDER AIR MOVING IN COULD ALSO CHANGE THESE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH GOOD MIXING AND A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE IN THE THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY,
BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS
DRIER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERCAST SKIES
AT LEB MAY INHIBIT VALLEY FOG AND THEREFORE FOG HAS BEEN LEFT
OUT OF THE TAF. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR TRANSITIONING TO IFR OR LOWER BETWEEN 00Z
TO 06Z FROM LEB TO PWM AND POINTS SOUTH. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY SPREAD NE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY: WIDESPREAD MVFR/AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: IFR RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST
SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID,
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE INSTANCES OF MVFR,
ESPECIALLY AT HIE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT HIE. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
POSSIBLE. HIE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU MON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUN WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD, BUT ONLY TO 3 OR 4
FT. SUN NIGHT INTO MON MOST OF THE MARINE ADVECTION FOG SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW FAR
NORTH IT CREEPS INTO MON. MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MULTIPLE
PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS LOW WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND THE EARLY PART OF
WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
POSSIBLY PROLONGING SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT THEN APPROACHES LATE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ019-020.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ021>028.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ010-012-013.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/LEGRO
AVIATION...SCHROETER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page