546
FXUS61 KGYX 111029
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPED UP POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSIACS
AND HRRR RUNS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING RAIN TO
MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
2. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS GOING TO BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. MUCH
OF TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THIS
MORNING YIELDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL TRACK ENE SOUTH OF CAPE COD TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NH
THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
NW TO SE MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY STAY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LATEST NBM BRINGING QPF AMOUNTS AROUND
0.65 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NH DECREASING TO THE NORTH.
AS THE LOW EXITS EAST MONDAY MORNING SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THAT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD LATE MONDAY
AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH FROM CANADA. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE 500 MB PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY UNSETTLED ZONAL WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST IS GOING TO BE LOW PRESSURE RIDING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS CROSSES
THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND LOOKS TO BE THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE MODERATE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS QPF,
LIKELY OWING TO THERE BEING DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER NORTH OF OUR
AREA AND PASSING OVER THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE 25TH-75TH SPREAD
IS AROUND 0.75" FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AROUND 0.30" OF SPREAD.
KEEPING THAT IN MIND, CURRENT ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE, DOWN TO THE MIDCOAST,
HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF 0.75" TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE ARE IN THE 0.5 TO
0.75" RANGE, AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50"
RANGE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE LOW EXITS, RAIN COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AS IT
TAPERS OFF. SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY GOING TO CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT, AND THIS COULD
BRING SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OVER ATLANTIC CANADA ON
THURSDAY WHICH DEEPENS A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS KEEPS
THURSDAY DRY AS WE SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN, BUT THE CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT IS GOING TO SET UP SEVERAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THAT TIME FRAME. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TRY AND FLESH OUT DETAILS, BUT THIS IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER
WINDOW TO WATCH FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TODAY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR TRANSITIONING TO
IFR OR LOWER BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z FROM LEB TO PWM AND POINTS
SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ANY LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN THE MORNING
WILL TRANSITION TO VFR WITH VFR LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CIGS
AND -SHRA LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS TO HIE AND LOW STRATUS MAY
IMPACT THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: IFR RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST
SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID,
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE INSTANCES OF MVFR,
ESPECIALLY AT HIE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT HIE. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING
POSSIBLE. HIE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL FRESHEN SW TODAY
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL SHIFT WINDS NE
TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY WHILE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD
BRING NE WINDS TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO
BRING SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD THE
END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MORE FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO CROSS
THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ019-020.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ021>028.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ010-012-013.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/EKSTER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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