421
FXUS61 KGYX 111811
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
211 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
2. A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO BENEFICIAL RAINS, SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AROUND THE MOOSE RIVER VALLEY.
3. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TURN DRIER AND BREEZY BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BATTLE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH. DRY AIR HAS BEEN WINNING
THAT BATTLE SO FAR TODAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO RAIN
THRU THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
MTNS, AND MOST OF THE RAINFALL CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NH WHERE
AMOUNTS NEAR 0.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTH, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1
INCHES NORTH OF THE LAKES REGION IN NH AND PORTLAND IN WESTERN
MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ON MON A BIT OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
THRU THE DAY. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
MON NIGHT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRANCHES INTO QUEBEC. THIS
OCCURS JUST BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AN ACTIVE PUSH OF COLD AIR COMBINED WITH PRECIP SHOULD ENSURE
COLD AIR DAMMING REMAINS IN PLACE THRU TUE. I HAVE TAKEN TEMPS
DOWN DURING THE DAY. THE NBM OFTEN STRUGGLES WITH CAD
SITUATIONS, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE NO DIFFERENT. A BLEND OF THE
10TH PERCENTILE NBM TEMPS AND RAW GFS PRODUCES A PRETTY FAIR
REPRESENTATION TO START WITH. GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME FOCUSES ON
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR A SOLID
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER CONFIDENCE HOWEVER AS OCCASIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
FARTHER SOUTH. SO I HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE POP THAN THE
QPF AT THIS POINT. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN
PARTS OF THE WESTERN MAINE MTNS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP TYPES. AS THE SYSTEM GETS INTO
THE RANGE OF MORE HI-RES GUIDANCE THE WAA ALOFT IS GETTING
STRONGER. THIS MAY TAKE SNOW OUT OF THE MIX MORE BUT MAY LEAVE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, ESPECIALLY MID-SLOPE IN THE MTNS, ON
THE TABLE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TUE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY, SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH IN THE
MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH SHOULD INITIALLY BE RAIN, BUT THESE COULD
SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MIX OF PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. OTHERWISE, IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
20-30 MPH, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
SOME GUIDANCE EVEN ADVERTISING LOW 70S FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH.
A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY,
AND THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN EVEN
BREEZIER CONDITIONS. GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY,
PERHAPS CLOSER TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN,
SO WE'LL LIKELY SEE MORE SUNSHINE WITH UPSLOPE PRECIP IN THE
MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS
MOSTLY TO THE 50S.
A COLD NIGHT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVERHEAD, BUT IT QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE. THERE'S STRONG SUPPORT IN THE
ENSEMBLES FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SO THE HIGH NBM POPS OF 60-80% ARE
JUSTIFIED. THIS WILL BE RAIN FOR MOST, BUT SOME SOLUTIONS ARE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK, WHICH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER
WEATHER RETURNING BY SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THRU
THIS EVENING AS RAIN INCHES NORTHWARD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS, AND THEN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HIE WILL BE THE ONE TERMINAL WHERE MVFR OR EVEN VFR
MAY PERSIST TONIGHT. BY MORNING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MON.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT: GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR DEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING.
TUESDAY: AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS RAIN GRADUALLY COMES TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
SITES, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO CAUSE
TEMPO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
AND RAIN SHOWERS AT HIE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AT HIE. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 25 KT.
THURSDAY: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY AT HIE DUE TO
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
FRIDAY: IFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU MON.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT, AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN LATER TUE. I AM LESS CONFIDENT THAT SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO SCA THRESHOLDS, BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES SOMETIME IN THE MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY. SCA LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS,
AS A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE MAY
BE BRIEF IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD
BUT WILL POTENTIALLY BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SCA CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY GALES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE/FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THROUGH.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/COMBS
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