587  
FXUS64 KHGX 142302  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
502 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024  
 
RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT  
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS SE TEXAS THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW,  
LOWS TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S/LOWER 50S  
INLAND AND MID 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS  
VALLEY/PINEY WOODS AREA COULD SEE LOWS DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH ARE  
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS A  
RESULT, WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING, INITIATING WAA  
AND MOISTURE RETURN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL  
BE IN THE 70S, WITH ISOLATED SPOTS APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK.  
LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S/MID 50S  
INLAND AND UPPER 50S/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
03  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024  
 
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS  
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND RIDGING ALOFT  
PERSISTS. AS A RESULT, WE'LL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN  
TEMPERATURES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY,  
WE'LL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG WITH  
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED WAA RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF I-45. OVERNIGHT LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SIMILAR CLIMB AS WELL. YOU KNOW HOW HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD?  
YEAH...THAT'S GONNA BE OUR LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. GOTTA LOVE  
GOOD OL' WAA, OVERCAST CLOUDS, AND BREEZY WINDS OVERNIGHT PREVENTING  
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF "COOLING". ON THE  
PLUS SIDE, WE'LL ONLY HAVE ONE NIGHT OF ABSURDLY WARM OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES AS WE HAVE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ON THE WAY THAT LOOKS TO  
BRING US THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.  
 
LET'S DIVE DEEPER INTO THIS COLD FRONT...FIRST UP IS WHAT'S CAUSING  
IT. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERATE  
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN WEST TEXAS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS  
TIGHTENS UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO INCREASING  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN  
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. THAT'LL BE THE CAUSE OF THE  
STREAMER SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
THERE'LL BE QUITE THE STRONG LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO  
NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, AND SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS  
ALOFT (40-50 KTS) WILL EXTEND INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY. THERE WON'T BE  
MUCH INSTABILITY TO PAIR WITH THIS EXCESS OF SPEED SHEAR, BUT THERE  
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY  
WINDS. THE SPC HAS A 15% PROBABILITY (EQUIVALENT OF A SLIGHT LEVEL  
2 OUT OF 5 RISK) ON MONDAY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, SO IT WOULDN'T  
SURPRISE ME TO SEE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY DUE TO THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL IF THESE  
TRENDS HOLD AS THE EVENT NEARS.  
 
TIMING FOR THE SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ON MONDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. PW VALUES WILL SURGE UP TO 1.7-2.0" ALONG THE BOUNDARY, SO  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER  
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS SHOULD BE A FAST MOVING FRONT THOUGH GIVEN THE  
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BEHIND IT. WE'LL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO  
THE 50S/60S ON MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE REAL PUSH OF COLD AIR HAPPENS  
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850MB FRONT. AFTER THAT  
FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE 60S FOR HIGH  
TEMPERATURES (AND MAYBE EVEN THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-10). LOW  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR  
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S/40S ON  
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. IT HASN'T FELT LIKE FALL MUCH THIS  
SEASON, SO I'M CHECKING OFF AS MUCH AS I CAN ON MY COLD WEATHER  
LIST: DRINKING HOT COCOA, BAKING COOKIES, CHRISTMAS MOVIE  
MARATHONS (I KNOW WE HAVEN'T MADE IT TO THANKSGIVING YET....DON'T  
@ ME), AND WEARING JACKETS/HOODIES/SWEATERS ALL DAY RATHER THAN  
JUST IN THE MORNING TIME.  
 
BATISTE  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024  
 
VFR/SKC. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING E TO SE AT AROUND 5 TO  
10 KNOTS TOMORROW. SE WINDS HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT (AROUND 5 KNOTS  
INLAND TAFS, AROUND 10 KNOTS GLS), AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SEEING  
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS (POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS) AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS  
PROGRESS (LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING). 42  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024  
 
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAUTION FLAGS REMAIN UP FOR THE GULF WATERS  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THOSE WILL DROP OFF BEFORE SUNSET.  
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY  
BY SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. THIS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FULL MOON  
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. DURING HIGH TIDE, WATER LEVELS  
COULD GET UP TO ~4 FT ABOVE MLLW BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING  
INTO THE WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR THIS  
TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US OUR NEXT COLD FRONT  
ON LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH. ADVISORIES AND/OR  
CAUTION FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CERTAINLY  
AFTERWARDS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN  
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO GALE  
FORCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
BATISTE  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 42 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0  
HOUSTON (IAH) 48 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0  
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 75 65 78 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
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